The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v 1. FC Saarbrücken

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 46.82%2.14fair odd
EV -8.24%
Edge -4.20%
Kelly -8.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.16%46.82%46.82%49.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.901.9655.56%53.05%52.63%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.84%27.75%27.75%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.233.4032.26%30.82%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.43%3.93fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -0.882%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.78%25.43%25.43%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.583.603.8032.26%27.97%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 46.82%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 27.75%; Draw: 25.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -3.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.48%EV -8.24%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -5.90%E -1.59%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.48%EV -8.24%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -5.90%E -1.59%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 23:25
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.71%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.98%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 20:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.71%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.98%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.71%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.98%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.43%E -2.55%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -3.35%E -0.882%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-20 11:33
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -14.32%E -7.83%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -4.62%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-20 11:35
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -15.73%E -8.74%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -8.43%E -2.55%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -5.90%E -1.59%K -2.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-20 11:35
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -15.73%E -8.74%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -13.98%E -4.51%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -10.98%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-20 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.27%EV -15.73%E -8.74%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.87%EV -13.98%E -4.51%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.87%EV -21.16%E -6.82%K -10.07%G +0.000%20.1%2026-04-19 15:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.