The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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MSV Duisburg v VfB Stuttgart II

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 12:59 UTC

Final: MSV Duisburg 3–3 VfB Stuttgart II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Prediction 62.35%1.60fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.01%
Kelly -8.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.60%62.32%62.40%64.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.441.5373.53%69.14%69.44%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart II (Visit)

Prediction 17.15%5.83fair odd
EV -0.178%
Edge -0.031%
Kelly -0.037%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.34%17.14%17.08%18.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.245.255.8221.05%19.09%19.05%17.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.50%4.88fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.424%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.37%20.54%20.52%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.444.504.8026.32%22.54%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 62.35%; VfB Stuttgart II (Visit): 17.15%; Draw: 20.50%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.82, with an expected value of -0.178%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -9.95%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 12:54
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.98%EV -5.85%E -3.87%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.34%EV -0.178%E -0.031%K -0.037%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.68%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -9.95%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -2.24%E -0.392%K -0.476%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 12:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -2.24%E -0.392%K -0.476%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 12:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.40%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -12.53%E -2.46%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -1.61%E -0.335%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 12:55
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -5.67%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 12:55
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -9.95%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.60%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -17.67%E -3.68%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 12:55
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.60%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -17.67%E -3.68%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 12:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.60%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -17.67%E -3.68%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 12:55
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.60%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -17.67%E -3.68%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.34%E -5.68%K -17.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -5.67%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -1.61%E -0.335%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 12:35
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.72%EV -8.97%E -6.14%K -19.50%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -10.81%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -11.86%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-31 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.28%EV -9.59%E -6.62%K -21.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -9.95%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 12:35
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.03%EV -9.59%E -6.62%K -21.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 12:35
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-31 12:49
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.01%E -4.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.01%E -4.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.01%E -4.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 12:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:14
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.95%E -0.706%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 13:15
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 16.42%EV -5.50%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.33%EV -8.78%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 20:16
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.89%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -9.95%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.98%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 12:55
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.95%EV -11.46%E -8.07%K -27.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -14.24%E -2.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.46%EV -11.86%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-31 12:35
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.80%EV -12.71%E -9.08%K -31.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.22%EV -18.53%E -3.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.98%EV -11.24%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-31 06:00
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -12.71%E -9.08%K -31.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.10%EV -18.53%E -3.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -13.91%E -3.31%K -4.35%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-31 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.01%EV -13.96%E -10.11%K -36.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.36%EV -7.38%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-26 13:15
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 60.82%EV -15.20%E -11.18%K -42.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 17.41%EV -18.53%E -3.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.77%EV -22.11%E -5.82%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.9%2026-10-31 12:50
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 60.82%EV -15.20%E -11.18%K -42.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 17.41%EV -18.53%E -3.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.77%EV -22.11%E -5.82%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.9%2026-10-31 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.15%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.88%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.98%2.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.15%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.88%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.98%2.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.15%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.88%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.98%2.2%2026-10-31 12:55

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