Language:English
MSV Duisburg v TSG Hoffenheim II
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 54.77%1.83fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -8.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.02%54.95%54.70%57.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.651.7164.52%60.93%60.79%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)
Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV +0.418%
Edge +0.095%
Kelly +0.123%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.81%22.80%22.90%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.054.004.4028.57%24.70%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV +0.849%
Edge +0.189%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.06%22.25%22.39%23.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.044.004.5028.57%24.77%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 54.77%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 22.82%; Draw: 22.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.849%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.10%EV -9.09%E -5.47%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 21.84%EV -0.951%E -0.219%K -0.285%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV +0.849%E +0.189%K +0.242%G +0.002% | 5.5% | 2026-10-10 14:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -2.96%E -0.684%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -3.63%E -0.845%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -3.63%E -0.845%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.63%E -5.84%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -1.86%E -0.434%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -3.63%E -0.845%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-10 14:11 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-10 14:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -11.83%E -7.34%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +0.418%E +0.095%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.87%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -12.37%E -7.73%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 21.43%EV -3.69%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -7.99%E -4.76%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.15%E -0.987%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-10 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -7.44%E -4.40%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-10 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -10.18%E -6.21%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 15:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 14:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.07%EV -15.11%E -9.75%K -27.48%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.81%EV -3.01%E -0.707%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -14.02%E -8.93%K -24.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -17.84%E -4.96%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.36%EV -12.13%E -3.15%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -11.48%E -2.91%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-10 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.62%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -10.99%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.90%EV -9.63%E -5.84%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -4.15%E -0.987%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -13.72%E -3.56%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.99%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -14.84%E -3.90%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.99%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -14.84%E -3.90%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.99%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -14.84%E -3.90%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.99%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -14.84%E -3.90%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.02%EV -8.54%E -5.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -20.12%E -5.75%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -15.96%E -4.26%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.06%EV -14.02%E -8.93%K -24.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.14%EV -17.84%E -4.96%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.80%EV -21.56%E -6.16%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-10-10 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.06%EV -14.02%E -8.93%K -24.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.14%EV -17.84%E -4.96%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.80%EV -21.56%E -6.16%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.38% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30% | 1.9% | 2026-10-10 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.38% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30% | 1.9% | 2026-10-10 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.38% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30% | 1.9% | 2026-10-10 14:20 |