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MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln 1904
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 41.58%2.40fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.59%41.50%43.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.152.152.2851.28%46.51%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit)
Prediction 32.44%3.08fair odd
EV -0.076%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.036%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.55%32.41%32.56%33.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.822.803.0840.00%35.44%35.71%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -0.947%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%26.00%25.94%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.553.7530.30%28.39%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 41.58%; FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit): 32.44%; Draw: 25.97%. For FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.082. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.080, with an expected value of -0.076%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.75%EV -5.19%E -2.28%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.90%EV -0.076%E -0.025%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -9.62%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-18 14:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.29%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 14:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.03%EV -6.85%E -3.06%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -3.97%E -1.34%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.03%EV -6.85%E -3.06%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -3.97%E -1.34%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-18 14:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.35%EV -7.68%E -3.46%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.79%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.20%EV -7.68%E -3.46%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.20%EV -7.68%E -3.46%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.51%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -10.59%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -10.59%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-18 14:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -10.59%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-18 14:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.59%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.47%EV -11.42%E -5.36%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.08%EV -5.59%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.45%EV -11.17%E -3.27%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -2.67%E -0.890%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -12.67%E -6.03%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-18 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.03%EV -13.50%E -6.49%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -14.03%E -5.29%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.73%EV -16.00%E -7.92%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.67%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-18 14:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%EV -16.83%E -8.42%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-10-18 14:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -16.83%E -8.42%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -18.89%E -7.56%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-10-18 14:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -16.83%E -8.42%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -18.89%E -7.56%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-10-18 14:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 43.64%EV -18.91%E -9.70%K -19.91%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.73%EV -15.65%E -6.02%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.64%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-10-18 14:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 14:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 14:25 |