The School of Odds
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Hansa Rostock v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 12:03 UTC

Final: Hansa Rostock 1–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hansa Rostock (Local)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.47%41.68%41.59%44.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.152.3251.28%46.72%46.51%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit)

Prediction 31.62%3.16fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.634%
Kelly -0.935%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.57%31.52%31.55%32.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.902.883.1039.22%34.43%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%26.80%26.86%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.423.403.6032.05%29.22%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hansa Rostock (Local): 41.61%; Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit): 31.62%; Draw: 26.77%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -3.47%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.47%EV -3.47%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.51%EV -5.76%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:55
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.92%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 11:53
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.12%EV -7.63%E -3.44%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 11:53
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.12%EV -7.63%E -3.44%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 11:52
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.29%E -2.86%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 11:53
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.29%E -2.86%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 11:45
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.29%E -2.86%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 11:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 11:53
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.92%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.92%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 11:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.92%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 11:31
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.40%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.22%EV -9.71%E -4.47%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -8.29%E -2.86%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 04:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 11:45
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.96%EV -7.66%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 11:45
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.45%E -4.09%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 11:45
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 11:44
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.45%E -4.09%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 11:45
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 11:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 11:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.92%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 09:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.45%E -4.09%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 11:45
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 11:45
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 41.90%EV -13.45%E -6.47%K -12.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -13.03%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-24 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Casumo🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:14
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:14
TABtouch🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -13.87%E -6.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -1.96%E -0.634%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:15
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.63%EV -14.70%E -7.17%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.67%EV -19.36%E -7.59%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.70%EV -16.49%E -5.29%K -7.78%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-24 11:49
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.63%EV -14.70%E -7.17%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.67%EV -19.36%E -7.59%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.70%EV -16.49%E -5.29%K -7.78%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-24 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -16.78%E -8.39%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:15
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.87%EV -18.86%E -9.67%K -19.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -14.61%E -5.41%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-24 05:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-10-24 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-10-24 11:53
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.27%1.5%2026-10-24 11:45