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Fortuna Düsseldorf v 1. FC Saarbrücken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)
Prediction 45.38%2.20fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.71%45.41%45.54%47.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.022.042.1052.63%49.50%49.14%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)
Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV +0.080%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.37%29.30%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.043.003.4037.04%32.90%33.33%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.432%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.71%25.22%25.16%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.603.9230.77%28.10%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 45.38%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 29.44%; Draw: 25.19%. For 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.397. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.080%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -10.61%E -5.39%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV +0.080%E +0.024%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.05%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.71%EV -2.57%E -0.776%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.24%EV -1.26%E -0.322%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.86%E -0.868%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.81%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.81%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -11.52%E -5.91%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 28.31%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 25.37%EV -10.33%E -2.90%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -10.58%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-17 11:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-17 11:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-17 11:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 43.91%EV -5.16%E -2.47%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-17 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-17 11:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -10.58%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -14.36%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -14.36%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -14.36%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.02%EV -11.06%E -5.64%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -13.10%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-12 12:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -13.17%E -4.46%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -10.58%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -14.64%E -5.05%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.44%EV -10.61%E -5.39%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.19%EV -14.64%E -5.05%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.37%EV -13.10%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -11.52%E -5.91%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.68%EV -17.58%E -6.28%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -14.36%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-10-15 10:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 43.95%EV -13.79%E -7.26%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.36%EV -19.05%E -6.93%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.69%EV -18.14%E -5.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-10-17 11:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 43.95%EV -13.79%E -7.26%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.36%EV -19.05%E -6.93%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.69%EV -18.14%E -5.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-10-17 11:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.68%EV -13.33%E -6.98%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -20.52%E -7.60%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-10-15 03:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 1.6% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |