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FC Ingolstadt 04 v Rot-Weiss Essen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)
Prediction 29.25%3.42fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.06%29.25%29.17%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.2034.48%32.05%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rot-Weiss Essen (Visit)
Prediction 46.07%2.17fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -5.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.68%46.12%46.11%47.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.952.0555.56%51.31%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.68%4.05fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.421%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.25%24.63%24.71%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.693.734.0030.30%27.13%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 29.25%; Rot-Weiss Essen (Visit): 46.07%; Draw: 24.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.70%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.56%E -2.71%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.94%EV -2.00%E -0.505%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%EV -6.02%E -2.95%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%EV -6.02%E -2.95%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -3.73%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -1.26%E -0.316%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-14 12:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.67%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.83%EV -9.71%E -4.95%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.83%EV -9.71%E -4.95%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-14 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.83%EV -9.71%E -4.95%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -12.01%E -6.29%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-17 11:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -4.97%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.90%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-17 11:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-17 11:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.54%EV -9.16%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-17 11:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -12.01%E -6.29%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-13 13:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.17%E -5.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -13.85%E -7.41%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-17 09:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -14.77%E -7.99%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -6.20%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-17 11:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.98%EV -13.39%E -7.12%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-14 17:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -10.79%E -3.54%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -8.79%E -4.44%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%EV -9.90%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.86%E -3.93%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.61%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.53%EV -15.23%E -8.28%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.32%EV -7.44%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-17 09:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.94%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.94%EV -14.77%E -7.99%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.12%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-10-17 00:17 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.27%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.15%EV -17.08%E -9.49%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.58%EV -11.14%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-10-17 09:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.65%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 46.16%EV -17.08%E -9.49%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.18%EV -18.54%E -5.62%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-10-15 08:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.65%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 46.16%EV -17.08%E -9.49%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.18%EV -18.54%E -5.62%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-10-15 08:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.56% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.28% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.56% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.28% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.56% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.28% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 11:55 |