The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 12:03 UTC

Final: FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 MSV Duisburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)

Prediction 30.53%3.28fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.50%30.57%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.993.2037.04%33.95%33.44%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MSV Duisburg (Visit)

Prediction 43.44%2.30fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.70%43.45%43.43%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.082.102.1651.81%48.02%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%26.05%26.00%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.7031.25%28.46%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 30.53%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 43.44%; Draw: 26.03%. For FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -2.30%E -0.717%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -7.05%E -3.29%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -2.30%E -0.717%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 09:55
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%EV -3.21%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.05%EV -6.18%E -2.86%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.93%EV -4.47%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -3.82%E -1.21%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.18%E -2.86%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:05
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:09
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:10
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 12:10
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 11:10
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -6.88%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 11:05
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 11:52
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.61%E -3.08%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 11:05
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 09:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.25%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:10
1xBet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 30.27%EV -8.71%E -2.91%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -10.09%E -4.87%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.01%EV -9.41%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 04:20
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -9.93%E -3.37%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.85%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 10:49
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.46%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.61%E -3.08%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 09:55
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.46%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 11:45
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.46%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 11:52
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -11.46%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.60%EV -14.43%E -7.33%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-19 12:09
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.19%EV -12.07%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.77%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 11:50
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.07%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -6.61%E -3.08%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.07%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -6.61%E -3.08%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.07%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -6.61%E -3.08%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -12.07%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 04:45
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 09:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 11:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:15
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:15
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.51%E -5.18%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.78%E -4.18%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:15
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -16.04%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-24 09:55
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -16.04%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -10.96%E -5.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-24 10:05
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -17.56%E -6.50%K -10.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 43.87%EV -15.30%E -7.85%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-24 06:45
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.84%EV -17.56%E -6.50%K -10.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.14%EV -16.17%E -8.38%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.02%EV -16.70%E -5.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-24 10:03
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.84%EV -17.56%E -6.50%K -10.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.14%EV -16.17%E -8.38%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.02%EV -16.70%E -5.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-24 10:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-10-24 11:53
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-10-24 11:53
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-10-24 11:55