The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Ingolstadt 04 v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 13:03 UTC

Final: FC Ingolstadt 04 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)

Prediction 33.53%2.98fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.78%33.61%33.37%34.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.752.8540.00%36.91%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit)

Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%39.55%39.74%40.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.282.4746.51%43.76%43.86%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -0.886%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.84%26.89%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.403.6030.77%29.19%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 33.53%; Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit): 39.58%; Draw: 26.89%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.47, with an expected value of -2.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.43%E -1.55%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.00%E -2.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 12:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.36%EV -5.44%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -3.44%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.36%EV -5.44%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -3.44%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 12:55
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.09%EV -5.77%E -2.05%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.78%EV -2.25%E -0.911%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.13%EV -5.07%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-07 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-07 12:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.22%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:50
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 12:45
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 12:45
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 12:35
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -12.60%E -3.88%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -12.60%E -3.88%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -7.78%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -12.60%E -3.88%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 12:45
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.11%EV -8.46%E -3.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.82%EV -10.16%E -4.48%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.06%EV -10.18%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-07 12:45
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-07 12:49
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.81%E -2.44%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 12:45
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-07 12:49
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-07 12:45
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -9.46%E -3.50%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -12.93%E -5.88%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 11:29
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -11.14%E -4.20%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 12:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -11.81%E -4.49%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 11:20
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -11.81%E -4.49%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -11.81%E -4.49%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-07 11:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -11.81%E -4.49%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -12.93%E -5.88%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-07 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -11.81%E -4.49%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -12.93%E -5.88%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-07 12:00
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.14%E -4.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-07 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.14%E -4.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-07 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -12.81%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-07 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -12.81%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.96%E -4.87%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-07 12:50
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.67%EV -12.81%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.80%EV -12.93%E -5.88%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-07 11:30
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -16.17%E -6.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -14.91%E -6.94%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%15.9%2026-11-07 12:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%1.3%2026-11-07 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.59%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.54%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87%2.0%2026-11-07 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.59%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.54%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87%2.0%2026-11-07 12:45

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