Language:English
Erzgebirge Aue v VfL Osnabrück
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Prediction 30.31%3.30fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.556%
Kelly -0.804%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.71%30.32%30.28%30.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.053.2436.36%33.00%32.79%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Osnabrück (Visit)
Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.25%41.57%41.62%45.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.152.2950.00%46.95%46.51%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.657%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%28.11%28.10%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.5033.33%30.29%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 30.31%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 41.59%; Draw: 28.10%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.64%EV -1.80%E -0.556%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.12%EV -5.18%E -2.27%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.64%EV -1.80%E -0.556%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.12%EV -5.18%E -2.27%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 11:06 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -3.01%E -0.942%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -15.16%E -7.43%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -4.53%E -1.44%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -15.99%E -7.92%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-23 13:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.47%EV -5.14%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.65%EV -4.76%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.89%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 12:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.04%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 12:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.56%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -3.05%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 10:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -7.56%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 10:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -7.56%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 10:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -7.56%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.21%EV -9.75%E -4.49%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-28 10:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -7.56%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-28 12:41 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 11:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.51%EV -9.68%E -3.25%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 41.52%EV -8.92%E -4.07%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -8.67%E -2.67%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 12:46 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:06 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.11%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -15.69%E -5.23%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-02-28 10:46 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-02-28 11:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.38%EV -16.65%E -6.06%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.77%EV -16.82%E -8.41%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.85%EV -15.69%E -5.23%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-02-28 10:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.