The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

1. FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Saarbrücken (Local)

Prediction 36.29%2.76fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.66%36.32%36.23%37.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.502.6743.48%40.45%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MSV Duisburg (Visit)

Prediction 37.51%2.67fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.28%37.51%37.56%38.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.452.5444.44%41.26%40.82%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.17%26.21%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.473.503.6532.05%28.84%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Saarbrücken (Local): 36.29%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 37.51%; Draw: 26.20%. For 1. FC Saarbrücken (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.67, with an expected value of -3.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.67%EV -3.10%E -1.16%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.24%EV -6.61%E -2.65%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -4.19%E -1.59%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.06%EV -4.73%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-13 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -4.19%E -1.59%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.06%EV -4.73%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-13 16:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.23%E -2.49%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-13 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.99%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-13 16:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.68%EV -8.48%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-13 16:55
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-13 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-13 16:54
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.23%E -2.49%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 01:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 17:29
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 16:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 16:45
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-13 16:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-13 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-13 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-13 16:44
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.08%E -4.52%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-13 16:54
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -11.08%E -4.52%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-13 16:43
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -11.08%E -4.52%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -10.73%E -4.51%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-10 15:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.52%EV -11.81%E -4.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.76%EV -11.86%E -5.05%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -9.61%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-10 14:50
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-13 06:40
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 06:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 06:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 06:19
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 06:19
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 06:39
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 14:04
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -12.90%E -5.37%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -15.61%E -6.94%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-13 16:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -13.62%E -5.72%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -9.98%E -4.16%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-13 16:49
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.66%EV -16.53%E -7.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.86%EV -11.86%E -5.05%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-13 14:03
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.55%EV -16.53%E -7.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.28%EV -10.73%E -4.51%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-11 07:18
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.24%EV -16.53%E -7.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.05%EV -15.61%E -6.94%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.72%EV -18.25%E -5.85%K -8.61%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-13 16:43
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.24%EV -16.53%E -7.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.05%EV -15.61%E -6.94%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.72%EV -18.25%E -5.85%K -8.61%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-13 16:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-10-13 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-10-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.83%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%2.1%2026-10-13 16:55