VfL Osnabrück v Bayern Munich

2026-09-02 18:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

89%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Prediction 3.66%27.34fair odd

EV +13.40%

Edge +0.432%

Kelly +0.447%

Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.09%3.56%3.66%6.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

12.5019.9220.0031.008%5%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 89.42%1.12fair odd

EV -6.11%

Edge -5.82%

Kelly -122.16%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.22%89.65%89.42%91.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.001.021.021.05100%98%98%95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 6.92%14.45fair odd

EV +17.66%

Edge +1.04%

Kelly +1.10%

Growth +0.195%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.64%6.79%6.92%10.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

8.0011.7112.0017.0013%9%8%6%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	31.00I 3.23%NM 3.09%EV +13.40%E +0.432%K +0.447%G +0.060%	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.27%EV -6.11%E -5.82%K -122.16%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.64%EV +17.66%E +1.04%K +1.10%G +0.195%	4.3%	2026-07-22 08:40
LeoVegas	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.58%EV -26.84%E -1.34%K -1.41%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 88.88%EV -7.90%E -7.67%K -263.21%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -3.11%E -0.222%K -0.239%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-25 05:05
NetBet (FR)	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -8.55%E -0.342%K -0.356%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 89.67%EV -9.68%E -9.59%K -968.48%G +0.000%	13.50I 7.41%NM 6.71%EV -6.57%E -0.486%K -0.525%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-25 05:08
Codere (IT)	24.00I 4.17%NM 3.86%EV -12.21%E -0.509%K -0.531%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.02%EV -7.00%E -6.73%K -175.05%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -10.03%E -0.771%K -0.836%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-25 05:05
Tipico (DE)	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -8.55%E -0.342%K -0.356%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.63%EV -7.00%E -6.73%K -175.05%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -16.95%E -1.41%K -1.54%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-24 15:00
Winamax (DE)	15.00I 6.67%NM 5.81%EV -45.13%E -3.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 86.27%EV -9.68%E -9.59%K -968.48%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 7.92%EV -23.87%E -2.17%K -2.39%G +0.000%	14.8%	2026-07-25 05:00
Winamax (FR)	12.50I 8.00%NM 6.68%EV -54.28%E -4.34%K -4.72%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 83.50%EV -10.58%E -10.58%K +0.000%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 9.82%EV -41.17%E -4.84%K -5.49%G +0.000%	19.8%	2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (FR)	13.00I 7.69%NM 6.54%EV -52.45%E -4.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 83.34%EV -8.79%E -8.62%K -439.53%G +0.000%	8.40I 11.90%NM 10.12%EV -41.86%E -4.98%K -5.66%G +0.000%	17.6%	2026-07-25 05:05
Betclic (FR)	13.75I 7.27%NM 6.17%EV -49.70%E -3.61%K -3.90%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 83.22%EV -8.79%E -8.62%K -439.53%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 10.61%EV -44.63%E -5.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-07-25 05:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.