The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Osnabrück v Bayern Munich

2026-09-02 18:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Prediction 4.01%24.93fair odd
EV +24.36%
Edge +0.786%
Kelly +0.812%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.09%4.01%3.69%6.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.0019.0916.3831.007.14%5.24%6.11%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 88.46%1.13fair odd
EV -7.12%
Edge -6.78%
Kelly -142.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.17%88.46%88.63%91.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0599.01%97.32%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.53%13.28fair odd
EV +27.99%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.490%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.64%7.53%7.68%9.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.4110.7517.0011.11%8.77%9.30%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Osnabrück (Local): 4.01%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 88.46%; Draw: 7.53%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.28. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +27.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.09%EV +24.36%E +0.786%K +0.812%G +0.198%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.27%EV -7.12%E -6.78%K -142.35%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.64%EV +27.99%E +1.65%K +1.75%G +0.490%4.3%2026-07-22 08:40
LeoVegas🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV -15.76%E -0.750%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 88.63%EV -8.89%E -8.63%K -296.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -2.13%E -0.164%K -0.177%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-06 10:44
Tipico (DE)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +0.289%E +0.012%K +0.012%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.63%EV -8.00%E -7.69%K -200.05%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -9.66%E -0.805%K -0.878%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-24 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.88%EV -39.83%E -2.66%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 86.45%EV -9.77%E -9.58%K -488.55%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.67%EV -13.42%E -1.17%K -1.28%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-06 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.15%EV -43.84%E -3.13%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 85.24%EV -10.66%E -10.55%K -1065.57%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.61%EV -24.71%E -2.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-06 10:45
Betclic (FR)🎯16.75I 5.97%NM 5.26%EV -32.81%E -1.96%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 85.48%EV -8.89%E -8.63%K -296.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.27%EV -28.48%E -3.00%K -3.35%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-06 10:44
NetBet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.38%EV -35.82%E -2.24%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 85.30%EV -10.66%E -10.55%K -1065.57%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.31%EV -30.36%E -3.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-13 12:34
Unibet (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.19%EV -43.84%E -3.13%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 84.17%EV -8.89%E -8.63%K -296.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.63%EV -32.24%E -3.58%K -4.03%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-06 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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