The School of Odds

VfL Osnabrück v Bayern Munich

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Prediction 3.69%27.12fair odd
EV -7.82%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.326%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.69%3.69%3.69%3.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
25.0025.0025.0025.004%4%4%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 88.63%1.13fair odd
EV -7.82%
Edge -7.52%
Kelly -195.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.63%88.63%88.63%88.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.041.041.041.0496%96%96%96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 7.68%13.02fair odd
EV -7.82%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -0.711%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.68%7.68%7.68%7.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
12.0012.0012.0012.008%8%8%8%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -7.82%E -0.313%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.63%EV -7.82%E -7.52%K -195.58%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -7.82%E -0.652%K -0.711%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.