The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 18.56%5.39fair odd
EV -7.21%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.56%18.56%18.56%18.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.005.005.0020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 59.86%1.67fair odd
EV -7.21%
Edge -4.65%
Kelly -13.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.86%59.86%59.86%59.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.551.551.5564.52%64.52%64.52%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.58%4.63fair odd
EV -7.21%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%21.58%21.58%21.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.304.304.3023.26%23.26%23.26%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Bochum (Local): 18.56%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 59.86%; Draw: 21.58%. For VfL Bochum (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -7.21%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -7.21%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -7.21%E -4.65%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.