The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 23.85%4.19fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%23.85%23.85%23.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.903.903.903.9025.64%25.64%25.64%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 51.67%1.94fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -3.88%
Kelly -8.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.67%51.67%51.67%51.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.801.801.8055.56%55.56%55.56%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.48%4.09fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%24.48%24.48%24.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.803.803.8026.32%26.32%26.32%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Bochum (Local): 23.85%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 51.67%; Draw: 24.48%. For VfL Bochum (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.90, with an expected value of -6.99%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.99%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.