The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 58.63%1.71fair odd
EV -6.19%
Edge -3.87%
Kelly -10.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.23%58.53%58.58%59.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.551.6067.57%64.52%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 18.49%5.41fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -0.739%
Kelly -0.915%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.78%18.57%18.60%19.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.814.705.2022.73%20.77%21.28%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.88%4.37fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.492%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.89%22.82%24.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.954.004.3027.78%25.32%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 58.63%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 18.49%; Draw: 22.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.19%E -3.87%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.06%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 00:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.09%EV -7.36%E -4.66%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -6.20%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-09 07:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.99%EV -7.95%E -5.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -3.84%E -0.739%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -1.62%E -0.378%K -0.492%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 05:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.66%EV -9.12%E -5.89%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -3.84%E -0.739%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -6.20%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-03 22:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.90%EV -9.71%E -6.30%K -17.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.81%EV -16.79%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -8.49%E -2.12%K -2.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-09 07:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.69%EV -10.30%E -6.73%K -19.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.78%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -14.21%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-08 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 57.23%EV -13.23%E -8.94%K -27.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.25%EV -18.64%E -4.24%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.53%EV -17.64%E -4.90%K -6.78%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-09 07:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.