The School of Odds
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SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v Arminia Bielefeld

2026-08-22 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)

Prediction 18.60%5.38fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -0.558%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.09%19.17%18.60%21.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.634.505.2523.26%21.57%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 56.95%1.76fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.27%56.38%56.95%57.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.601.7066.67%62.55%62.50%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.725%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%24.45%24.46%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.723.704.0028.99%26.89%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local): 18.60%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 56.95%; Draw: 24.46%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -2.18%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -2.37%E -0.452%K -0.558%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.56%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -4.62%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -7.02%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.80%EV -7.17%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -8.29%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -10.74%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.91%EV -10.59%E -6.75%K -18.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -10.74%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-07 16:08
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.54%EV -16.32%E -3.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.37%EV -11.16%E -7.15%K -19.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.09%EV -10.74%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-04 16:15
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 18.85%EV -16.32%E -3.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.56%EV -14.58%E -9.72%K -29.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.59%EV -15.63%E -4.53%K -6.38%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-04 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.62%EV -18.18%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.06%EV -12.30%E -7.99%K -22.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -13.18%E -3.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-04 16:15
LeoVegas🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.17%EV -19.48%E -4.50%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.90%EV -6.61%E -4.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -2.18%E -0.544%K -0.725%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-04 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -20.04%E -4.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -3.19%E -1.88%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -7.07%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 16:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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