The School of Odds

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v Arminia Bielefeld

2026-08-22 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)

Prediction 21.02%4.76fair odd
EV +10.34%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.251%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.09%21.02%18.57%26.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.504.454.435.2529%22%23%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 54.93%1.82fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.879%
Kelly +1.91%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.93%54.93%57.31%57.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.471.601.581.8568%63%63%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.05%4.16fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.96%24.05%24.12%24.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.754.0029%27%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV +10.34%E +1.97%K +2.43%G +0.251%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.56%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.20%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:00
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +5.08%E +1.02%K +1.27%G +0.065%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -11.01%E -6.80%K -17.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.12%EV -7.41%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 17:00
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 18.64%EV -5.43%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 57.05%EV -19.25%E -13.09%K -40.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.31%EV -17.03%E -4.94%K -6.95%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-21 17:00
Betclic (FR)4.45I 22.47%NM 19.02%EV -6.48%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.44%EV -17.60%E -11.73%K -35.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.54%EV -17.03%E -4.94%K -6.95%G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-21 16:58
Winamax (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 19.75%EV -7.53%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.44%EV -15.40%E -10.00%K -28.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -12.22%E -3.35%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-21 17:00
LeoVegas4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.63%E -2.24%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.80%E -0.950%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 17:00
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.00%EV -11.73%E -2.79%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.00%EV -17.60%E -11.73%K -35.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.00%EV -15.82%E -4.52%K -6.33%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-21 17:00
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -26.44%E -7.55%K -10.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV +1.63%E +0.879%K +1.91%G +0.031%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -6.20%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (7 combinations) +1.94%BetMGM 5.25 (19.4%) / Tipico (DE) 1.85 (55.1%) / LeoVegas 4.00 (25.5%)Show all 7 combinations
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)DrawMargin
BetMGM 5.25 (19.4%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (55.1%)LeoVegas 4.00 (25.5%)+1.94%
BetMGM 5.25 (19.3%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.7%)BetMGM 3.90 (26.0%)+1.27%
BetMGM 5.25 (19.3%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.7%)Tipico (DE) 3.90 (26.0%)+1.27%
Codere (IT) 5.00 (20.2%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.6%)LeoVegas 4.00 (25.2%)+0.955%
BetMGM 5.25 (19.2%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.6%)Codere (IT) 3.85 (26.2%)+0.933%
Codere (IT) 5.00 (20.1%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.2%)BetMGM 3.90 (25.7%)+0.306%
Codere (IT) 5.00 (20.1%)Tipico (DE) 1.85 (54.2%)Tipico (DE) 3.90 (25.7%)+0.306%