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SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v Arminia Bielefeld
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)
Prediction 15.99%6.25fair odd
EV +3.92%
Edge +0.603%
Kelly +0.713%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.54%15.96%15.96%17.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.655.606.5019.61%17.69%17.86%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)
Prediction 65.00%1.54fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.68%65.04%65.01%66.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5071.43%68.99%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.01%5.26fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.598%
Kelly -0.744%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.26%19.00%19.03%20.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.714.705.1023.53%21.23%21.28%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local): 15.99%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 65.00%; Draw: 19.01%. For SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV +3.92%E +0.603%K +0.713%G +0.028% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -7.70%E -5.42%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 14:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -4.07%E -0.679%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.75%E -3.96%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -4.07%E -0.679%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.75%E -3.96%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.07%E -0.679%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -4.07%E -0.679%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 09:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.27%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.84%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -6.85%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -7.27%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.97%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-22 15:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -8.07%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -3.80%E -2.57%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 09:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -8.07%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.60%EV -5.75%E -3.96%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -6.85%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -2.50%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -2.50%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 10:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -2.50%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -2.50%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.11%EV -7.05%E -4.93%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -3.05%E -0.598%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.98%EV -15.27%E -2.88%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.27%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-22 11:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -16.86%E -3.24%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.70%EV -4.45%E -3.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.85%EV -17.31%E -3.98%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -18.46%E -3.62%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.68%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.90%EV -19.21%E -4.52%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -18.46%E -3.62%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.68%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.90%EV -19.21%E -4.52%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.34%EV -18.46%E -3.62%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.85%EV -7.05%E -4.93%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.81%EV -19.21%E -4.52%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-18 10:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.