The School of Odds

SC Verl v Hamburger SV

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

SC Verl (Local)

Prediction 20.40%4.90fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.397%
Kelly +0.496%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%20.40%20.40%22.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.605.0024%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 57.93%1.73fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -6.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%57.93%57.93%59.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.611.6564%62%62%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.36%21.68%21.68%22.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.304.304.4024%23%23%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV +1.98%E +0.397%K +0.496%G +0.010%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 10:09
Tipico (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -14.33%E -3.41%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -4.42%E -2.68%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-06 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.