The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Verl v Hamburger SV

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Verl (Local)

Prediction 20.40%4.90fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.397%
Kelly +0.496%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%20.40%20.40%22.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.605.0023.81%21.74%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 57.93%1.73fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -6.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%57.93%57.93%59.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.611.6563.69%62.11%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.36%21.68%21.68%22.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.304.304.4023.81%23.26%23.26%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Verl (Local): 20.40%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 57.93%; Draw: 21.68%. For SC Verl (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV +1.98%E +0.397%K +0.496%G +0.010%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 10:09
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -14.33%E -3.41%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -4.42%E -2.68%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-06 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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