The School of Odds
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SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:00 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.08%56.67%56.49%58.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.631.651.7166.67%61.53%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 20.77%4.82fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.083%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.69%20.75%20.76%21.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.404.404.8023.81%22.71%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.65%4.41fair odd
EV -0.322%
Edge -0.073%
Kelly -0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%22.57%22.75%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.104.4026.32%24.42%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 56.58%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 20.77%; Draw: 22.65%. For VfL Wolfsburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.80, with an expected value of -0.314%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.19%EV -3.25%E -1.90%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -10.07%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-28 16:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -10.70%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.20%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.19%EV -1.14%E -0.240%K -0.304%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -3.72%E -0.875%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-28 16:50
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.71%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.47%EV -9.45%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 16:20
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.08%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -10.07%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.85%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 16:50
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -8.62%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
picklebet_au🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -4.47%E -0.971%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.85%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-28 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -4.47%E -0.971%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 16:50
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.65%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.65%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.65%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 16:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.33%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.314%E -0.065%K -0.083%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -2.59%E -0.602%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.62%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -0.322%E -0.073%K -0.095%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 16:49
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.60%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -11.74%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-28 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.70%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -10.52%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 16:50
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -10.07%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -13.91%E -3.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.46%EV -10.61%E -6.71%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-28 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.46%EV -10.61%E -6.71%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-28 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.77%EV -11.74%E -7.52%K -20.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-28 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.77%EV -11.74%E -7.52%K -20.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -9.38%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-28 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%EV -12.87%E -8.36%K -23.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -4.85%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-28 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.03%EV -14.00%E -9.21%K -26.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.16%EV -10.70%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -13.91%E -3.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-28 16:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.57%EV -15.13%E -10.09%K -30.27%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.74%EV -7.58%E -1.70%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.69%EV -8.25%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-28 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%0.9%2026-10-28 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%0.9%2026-10-28 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%0.9%2026-10-28 16:40