Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-28 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 61.99%1.61fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -9.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.72%62.01%61.97%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.461.471.5372.99%68.53%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 17.46%5.73fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -0.884%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.72%17.49%17.41%18.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.035.005.5021.74%19.87%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.725%
Kelly -0.921%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.67%20.50%20.61%21.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.404.344.7023.81%22.75%23.04%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Freiburg (Local): 61.99%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 17.46%; Draw: 20.55%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.87. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.70, with an expected value of -3.41%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -5.16%E -3.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -3.98%E -0.723%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 16:04
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.02%E -4.68%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -12.71%E -2.54%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.01%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 12:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.02%E -4.68%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -12.71%E -2.54%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.01%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 12:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.02%E -4.68%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -12.71%E -2.54%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.01%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 12:29
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.25%EV -8.25%E -5.58%K -17.20%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -9.22%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-12 14:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.89%EV -8.87%E -6.04%K -18.88%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -7.47%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -3.41%E -0.725%K -0.921%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 15:15
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.70%EV -8.87%E -6.04%K -18.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.71%E -2.54%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -7.52%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-14 07:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -10.73%E -7.45%K -24.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -12.71%E -2.54%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.45%EV -10.60%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-13 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.21%EV -10.73%E -7.45%K -24.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.75%EV -17.94%E -3.82%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -9.57%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-12 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 60.72%EV -11.97%E -8.43%K -28.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.75%EV -19.69%E -4.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.53%EV -13.68%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-12 14:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 62.57%EV -13.83%E -9.95%K -35.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.72%EV -9.22%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -13.68%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-15 20:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.27%EV -15.07%E -11.00%K -40.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.41%EV -14.45%E -2.95%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.31%EV -13.68%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-13 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.