The School of Odds
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SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 63.87%1.57fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -5.10%
Kelly -16.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.87%63.87%63.87%63.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.451.451.4568.97%68.97%68.97%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 16.84%5.94fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.84%16.84%16.84%16.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.505.505.5018.18%18.18%18.18%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.29%5.18fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.29%19.29%19.29%19.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.804.804.804.8020.83%20.83%20.83%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Freiburg (Local): 63.87%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 16.84%; Draw: 19.29%. For SC Freiburg (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.45, with an expected value of -7.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.87%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.39%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -7.39%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 00:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.