Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-28 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

64%

17%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 63.70%1.57fair odd

EV +2.55%

Edge +1.58%

Kelly +4.18%

Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.57%63.70%63.70%68.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.351.411.371.6174.07%71.14%72.99%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 16.97%5.89fair odd

EV +10.30%

Edge +1.59%

Kelly +1.87%

Growth +0.193%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.29%16.97%16.97%19.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.805.275.006.5020.83%18.97%20.00%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.34%5.17fair odd

EV +6.34%

Edge +1.15%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.89%19.34%19.34%21.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.594.505.5023.81%21.79%22.22%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Freiburg (Local): 63.70%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 16.97%; Draw: 19.34%. For VfL Wolfsburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.89. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -14.01%E -10.38%K -40.03%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +10.30%E +1.59%K +1.87%G +0.193%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV +6.34%E +1.15%K +1.41%G +0.089%	7.6%	2026-09-19 15:11
LeoVegas🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.54%EV -9.55%E -6.73%K -22.75%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -4.97%E -0.887%K -1.08%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-09-12 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 63.50%EV -11.46%E -8.25%K -29.39%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.31%EV -13.45%E -2.64%K -3.28%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-09-12 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 62.84%EV -14.01%E -10.38%K -40.03%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 16.97%EV -15.15%E -3.03%K -3.79%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.20%EV -18.79%E -4.47%K -5.87%G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-09-12 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 62.84%EV -14.01%E -10.38%K -40.03%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 16.97%EV -15.15%E -3.03%K -3.79%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.20%EV -18.79%E -4.47%K -5.87%G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-09-12 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 63.13%EV -12.74%E -9.30%K -34.43%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 17.65%EV -16.85%E -3.44%K -4.32%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.22%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-09-12 16:40
BetMGM🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV +2.55%E +1.58%K +4.18%G +0.107%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -18.55%E -3.86%K -4.88%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -16.28%E -3.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-21 08:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (6 combinations) +4.52%BetMGM 1.61 (64.9%) / Tipico (DE) 6.50 (16.1%) / Tipico (DE) 5.50 (19.0%)Show all 6 combinations

SC Freiburg (Local)	VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)	Draw	Margin
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (64.9%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 6.50 (16.1%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 5.50 (19.0%)	+4.52%
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (63.3%)	LeoVegas🎯 5.60 (18.2%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 5.50 (18.5%)	+1.88%
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (63.2%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 6.50 (15.6%)	LeoVegas🎯 4.80 (21.2%)	+1.70%
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (62.6%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 6.50 (15.5%)	Winamax (DE)🎯 4.60 (21.9%)	+0.770%
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (62.3%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 6.50 (15.4%)	Winamax (FR)🎯 4.50 (22.3%)	+0.282%
BetMGM🎯 1.61 (62.2%)	Winamax (DE)🎯 5.10 (19.6%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 5.50 (18.2%)	+0.099%