The School of Odds

Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

2026-08-23 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 34.34%2.91fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%34.63%34.34%35.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.572.7542%39%39%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 38.13%2.62fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.13%38.20%38.13%38.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.352.352.5045%43%43%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV -0.904%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.348%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%27.17%27.53%27.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.253.6032%30%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.57%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.67%E -1.87%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 10:30
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -7.28%E -2.70%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -6.57%E -2.68%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.79%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 04:55
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.00%E -3.40%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.48%E -3.53%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 02:15
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.72%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.48%E -3.53%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -0.904%E -0.251%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-24 15:00
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 34.13%EV -11.75%E -4.57%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.47%EV -13.06%E -5.73%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-25 04:54
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -14.15%E -5.66%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -12.29%E -5.34%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-25 04:55
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.61%EV -15.87%E -6.48%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.13%EV -10.39%E -4.42%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.26%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-25 04:55
NetBet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 34.73%EV -15.87%E -6.48%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.82%EV -14.20%E -6.31%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.45%EV -14.67%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-25 02:24
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -17.58%E -7.33%K -12.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -16.11%E -7.32%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -14.67%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%19.4%2026-07-25 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.