Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

2026-08-23 16:00 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis)

Option 1: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Odds

2.4041.67%Min

2.5738.89%Mean

2.6038.46%Median

2.7536.36%Max

Consensus probabilities

34.33%2.913Min

35.64%2.806Max

34.79%2.875Mean

34.36%2.910Median

34.79%2.875IQM

34.75%2.878Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.75 under the IQM model: 34.79%

EV -4.34%Edge -1.58%Kelly -2.48%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Odds

2.2045.45%Min

2.3742.19%Mean

2.4041.67%Median

2.5040.00%Max

Consensus probabilities

37.03%2.700Min

38.61%2.590Max

38.14%2.622Mean

37.98%2.633Median

38.14%2.622IQM

38.11%2.624Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 38.14%

EV -4.65%Edge -1.86%Kelly -3.10%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.1032.26%Min

3.3030.30%Mean

3.3030.30%Median

3.6027.78%Max

Consensus probabilities

25.74%3.885Min

27.84%3.592Max

27.07%3.694Mean

27.66%3.615Median

27.07%3.694IQM

27.14%3.684Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 27.07%

EV -2.53%Edge -0.704%Kelly -0.975%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Rot-Weiss Essen (Local) ▼	FC St. Pauli (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.38%EV -4.34% E -1.58% K -2.48% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.82%EV -4.65% E -1.86% K -3.10% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.81%EV -7.95% E -2.34% K -3.31% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-05 10:30
Codere (IT)	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.33%EV -6.08% E -2.25% K -3.58% G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98% NM 37.99%EV -6.94% E -2.84% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85% NM 27.67%EV -9.30% E -2.78% K -3.96% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-05 10:30
LeoVegas	2.65I 37.74% NM 34.67%EV -7.82% E -2.95% K -4.74% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 37.50%EV -6.55% E -2.68% K -4.52% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 27.84%EV -10.66% E -3.23% K -4.63% G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-07-05 10:30
Tipico (DE)	2.60I 38.46% NM 35.64%EV -9.56% E -3.68% K -5.97% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.61%EV -8.46% E -3.53% K -6.04% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -2.53% E -0.704% K -0.975% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-24 15:00
Winamax (DE)	2.50I 40.00% NM 35.01%EV -13.04% E -5.21% K -8.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 38.06%EV -12.28% E -5.34% K -9.44% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 26.93%EV -12.01% E -3.70% K -5.34% G +0.000%	14.2%	2026-07-05 10:30
Betclic (FR)	2.42I 41.32% NM 35.11%EV -15.82% E -6.54% K -11.14% G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08% NM 39.15%EV -17.23% E -7.94% K -14.73% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 25.74%EV -10.66% E -3.23% K -4.63% G +0.000%	17.7%	2026-06-24 17:49
Unibet (FR)	2.40I 41.67% NM 35.49%EV -16.52% E -6.88% K -11.80% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 37.03%EV -12.28% E -5.34% K -9.44% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 27.48%EV -16.07% E -5.18% K -7.65% G +0.000%	17.4%	2026-07-05 10:30
Winamax (FR)	2.40I 41.67% NM 34.90%EV -16.52% E -6.88% K -11.80% G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45% NM 38.08%EV -16.09% E -7.31% K -13.41% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 27.02%EV -16.07% E -5.18% K -7.65% G +0.000%	19.4%	2026-07-05 10:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth