The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

2026-08-23 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 34.22%2.92fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.98%34.22%34.15%35.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.552.7540.82%38.80%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 38.81%2.58fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.25%38.81%38.42%40.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.312.5045.45%42.85%43.29%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.97%27.43%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.253.6032.26%30.42%30.77%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 34.22%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 38.81%; Draw: 26.97%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -2.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.91%E -2.15%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 10:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.62%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -10.73%E -4.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -2.90%E -0.805%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-13 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.36%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.47%EV -9.96%E -4.29%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -12.34%E -3.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 21:58
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -11.04%E -4.25%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -4.91%E -2.00%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.15%EV -14.46%E -5.78%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -13.69%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-09 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -14.46%E -5.78%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -10.73%E -4.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -12.34%E -3.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-09 21:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.98%EV -14.46%E -5.78%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.61%EV -14.61%E -6.64%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.40%EV -16.38%E -5.29%K -7.80%G +0.000%17.7%2026-08-11 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.03%EV -16.17%E -6.60%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.15%EV -12.67%E -5.63%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.82%EV -13.69%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-09 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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