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Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)
Prediction 28.38%3.52fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.37%28.35%30.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.38%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC St. Pauli (Visit)
Prediction 46.28%2.16fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.57%46.21%46.50%47.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.032.052.1052.08%49.38%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -0.976%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%25.42%25.14%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.643.8029.41%27.70%27.47%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 28.38%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 46.28%; Draw: 25.34%. For FC St. Pauli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -3.71%E -0.976%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.15%EV -4.35%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.65%EV -11.15%E -5.81%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.20%EV -8.02%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 15:43 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.71%E -0.976%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -7.75%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -4.67%E -2.27%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.75%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.94%EV -8.37%E -4.23%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.71%E -0.976%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 15:53 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -7.75%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.95%EV -10.68%E -5.54%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 09:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -12.01%E -3.87%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -11.15%E -5.81%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -7.51%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.01%E -3.87%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.53%EV -10.22%E -5.27%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -13.43%E -4.40%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.82%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -10.04%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-23 15:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -4.98%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -8.37%E -4.23%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-23 15:48 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -8.37%E -4.23%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-23 15:48 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.89%EV -8.83%E -4.48%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.