Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

35%

38%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd

EV -3.72%

Edge -1.35%

Kelly -2.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.10%35.01%35.01%35.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.402.532.492.7542%40%40%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 38.21%2.62fair odd

EV -4.46%

Edge -1.79%

Kelly -2.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.30%38.21%38.21%38.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.202.322.302.5045%43%43%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.73fair odd

EV -3.61%

Edge -1.00%

Kelly -1.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.74%26.77%26.77%27.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.083.263.173.6032%31%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.72%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.46%E -1.79%K -2.98%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-11 10:09
Tipico (DE)	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.28%E -3.45%K -5.92%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (DE)	2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -12.47%E -4.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -12.11%E -5.26%K -9.31%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -12.98%E -4.00%K -5.77%G +0.000%	14.2%	2026-06-17 23:39
Betclic (FR)	2.48I 40.32%NM 34.10%EV -13.17%E -5.31%K -8.90%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 38.44%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.27%G +0.000%	3.08I 32.47%NM 27.46%EV -17.54%E -5.69%K -8.43%G +0.000%	18.2%	2026-06-17 23:30
Unibet (FR)	2.45I 40.82%NM 35.02%EV -14.22%E -5.81%K -9.81%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.30%EV -12.11%E -5.26%K -9.31%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%EV -17.00%E -5.48%K -8.10%G +0.000%	16.6%	2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (FR)	2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -15.97%E -6.66%K -11.41%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.27%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -17.00%E -5.48%K -8.10%G +0.000%	19.4%	2026-06-17 23:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.