Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

2026-08-21 16:00 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Odds

2.4041.67%Min

2.5339.53%Mean

2.4940.16%Median

2.7536.36%Max

Consensus probabilities

34.10%2.932Min

35.64%2.806Max

35.01%2.856Mean

35.01%2.856Median

35.01%2.856IQM

34.92%2.863Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.75 under the IQM model: 35.01%

EV -3.72%Edge -1.35%Kelly -2.13%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Odds

2.2045.45%Min

2.3243.17%Mean

2.3043.48%Median

2.5040.00%Max

Consensus probabilities

37.30%2.681Min

38.61%2.590Max

38.21%2.617Mean

38.21%2.617Median

38.21%2.617IQM

38.16%2.620Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 38.21%

EV -4.46%Edge -1.79%Kelly -2.98%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.0832.47%Min

3.2630.72%Mean

3.1731.50%Median

3.6027.78%Max

Consensus probabilities

25.74%3.885Min

27.81%3.596Max

26.77%3.735Mean

26.77%3.735Median

26.77%3.735IQM

26.91%3.715Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 26.77%

EV -3.61%Edge -1.00%Kelly -1.39%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Rot-Weiss Essen (Local) ▼	FC St. Pauli (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.38%EV -3.72% E -1.35% K -2.13% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.82%EV -4.46% E -1.79% K -2.98% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.81%EV -8.97% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-11 10:09
Tipico (DE)	2.60I 38.46% NM 35.64%EV -8.97% E -3.45% K -5.61% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.61%EV -8.28% E -3.45% K -5.92% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -3.61% E -1.00% K -1.39% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (DE)	2.50I 40.00% NM 35.01%EV -12.47% E -4.99% K -8.32% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 38.06%EV -12.11% E -5.26% K -9.31% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 26.93%EV -12.98% E -4.00% K -5.77% G +0.000%	14.2%	2026-06-17 23:39
Betclic (FR)	2.48I 40.32% NM 34.10%EV -13.17% E -5.31% K -8.90% G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45% NM 38.44%EV -15.93% E -7.24% K -13.27% G +0.000%	3.08I 32.47% NM 27.46%EV -17.54% E -5.69% K -8.43% G +0.000%	18.2%	2026-06-17 23:30
Unibet (FR)	2.45I 40.82% NM 35.02%EV -14.22% E -5.81% K -9.81% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 37.30%EV -12.11% E -5.26% K -9.31% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 27.68%EV -17.00% E -5.48% K -8.10% G +0.000%	16.6%	2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (FR)	2.40I 41.67% NM 34.90%EV -15.97% E -6.66% K -11.41% G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45% NM 38.08%EV -15.93% E -7.24% K -13.27% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 27.02%EV -17.00% E -5.48% K -8.10% G +0.000%	19.4%	2026-06-17 23:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth