The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v FC St. Pauli

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.10%35.01%35.01%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.492.7541.67%39.53%40.16%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 38.21%2.62fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.30%38.21%38.21%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.302.5045.45%43.17%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.73fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.77%26.77%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.083.263.173.6032.47%30.72%31.50%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 35.01%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 38.21%; Draw: 26.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.72%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.46%E -1.79%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-11 10:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.28%E -3.45%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -12.47%E -4.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -12.11%E -5.26%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -12.98%E -4.00%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.2%2026-06-17 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.10%EV -13.17%E -5.31%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.44%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.46%EV -17.54%E -5.69%K -8.43%G +0.000%18.2%2026-06-17 23:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.02%EV -14.22%E -5.81%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.30%EV -12.11%E -5.26%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%EV -17.00%E -5.48%K -8.10%G +0.000%16.6%2026-06-17 23:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -15.97%E -6.66%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -17.00%E -5.48%K -8.10%G +0.000%19.4%2026-06-17 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.