The School of Odds
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Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 17:00 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 27.16%3.68fair odd
EV -0.598%
Edge -0.163%
Kelly -0.225%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.27%27.16%27.14%28.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.403.6631.25%29.78%29.41%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 48.06%2.08fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.93%48.03%48.01%49.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.951.9854.64%51.93%51.28%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.536%
Kelly -0.718%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%24.81%24.85%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.753.9528.57%26.88%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 27.16%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 48.06%; Draw: 24.78%. For Hamburger SV (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.66, with an expected value of -0.598%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.27%EV -0.598%E -0.163%K -0.225%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.56%EV -4.84%E -2.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.17%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-27 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -4.94%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.87%EV -7.24%E -3.75%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -3.36%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 16:55
picklebet_au🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.94%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.83%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 16:25
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -4.94%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.67%EV -9.65%E -5.13%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -2.12%E -0.536%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 16:30
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -4.94%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.20%E -4.30%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.83%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.70%EV -4.84%E -2.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -5.32%E -2.70%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 16:50
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -4.84%E -2.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.83%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 16:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.83%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -7.07%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:30
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.27%E -3.79%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.27%E -3.79%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.66%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.27%E -3.79%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 16:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.02%E -2.69%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.16%EV -6.76%E -3.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -3.36%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 16:25
NetBet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.02%E -2.69%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.13%EV -10.13%E -5.42%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.79%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-27 16:45
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -11.73%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.37%EV -8.20%E -4.30%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -9.55%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -11.73%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -9.17%E -4.85%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -9.55%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-27 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 27.24%EV -12.55%E -3.90%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.92%EV -12.05%E -6.58%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.84%EV -12.53%E -3.55%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-27 16:40
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.28%E -3.22%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.07%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.87%EV -9.65%E -5.13%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -7.07%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-27 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.27%EV -9.17%E -4.85%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.79%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.27%EV -9.17%E -4.85%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.79%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -10.13%E -5.42%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -12.03%E -3.39%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -12.05%E -6.58%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -13.27%E -3.79%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-27 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.