The School of Odds
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Hallescher FC v FC Schalke 04

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hallescher FC (Local)

Prediction 14.77%6.77fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -0.730%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.29%14.77%14.77%15.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.256.386.386.5016.00%15.69%15.69%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visit)

Prediction 67.72%1.48fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -7.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.61%67.72%67.72%68.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.391.391.4374.07%71.94%71.94%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.52%5.71fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.664%
Kelly -0.812%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.89%17.52%17.52%18.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.385.385.5019.05%18.60%18.60%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hallescher FC (Local): 14.77%; FC Schalke 04 (Visit): 67.72%; Draw: 17.52%. For FC Schalke 04 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.43, with an expected value of -3.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -4.01%E -0.618%K -0.730%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -8.58%E -6.36%K -24.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -3.65%E -0.664%K -0.812%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -7.71%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -3.17%E -2.21%K -7.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -8.03%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-11 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.