The School of Odds

Greuther Fürth v VfL Bochum

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prediction 36.35%2.75fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%36.35%36.35%37.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.582.582.6039%39%39%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

VfL Bochum (Visit)

Prediction 35.71%2.80fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.34%35.71%35.71%37.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.632.7540%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%27.94%27.94%28.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.353.353.4030%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -5.50%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -10.72%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.00%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -1.79%E -0.652%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -7.79%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-11 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.