The School of Odds

Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg

2026-08-23 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 15.06%6.64fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.325%
Kelly -0.384%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.63%15.07%15.06%16.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.105.785.806.5020%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 63.25%1.58fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -10.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.27%63.92%63.25%66.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.401.5075%71%71%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV +8.46%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.179%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%21.02%21.69%22.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.174.005.0026%24%25%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.64%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -11.45%E -8.18%K -28.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +8.46%E +1.69%K +2.12%G +0.179%8.1%2026-06-24 15:00
BetMGM6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.11%E -0.325%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -5.13%E -3.42%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.96%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 10:30
Codere (IT)6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -6.63%E -1.07%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -7.66%E -5.25%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -9.64%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Winamax (DE)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.11%EV -18.68%E -3.46%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.14%EV -11.45%E -8.18%K -28.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Betclic (FR)5.75I 17.39%NM 15.26%EV -13.41%E -2.33%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.69%EV -11.45%E -8.18%K -28.63%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.05%EV -13.66%E -3.43%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 04:59
Unibet (FR)5.30I 18.87%NM 16.42%EV -20.18%E -3.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.27%EV -10.19%E -7.17%K -24.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.31%EV -15.40%E -3.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-25 05:00
NetBet (FR)5.80I 17.24%NM 14.67%EV -12.66%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 63.51%EV -15.25%E -11.38%K -44.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.82%EV -15.40%E -3.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (FR)5.10I 19.61%NM 16.54%EV -23.20%E -4.55%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 61.56%EV -13.35%E -9.74%K -36.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.91%EV -16.48%E -4.28%K -5.78%G +0.000%18.6%2026-07-25 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.