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Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg

2026-08-23 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 15.07%6.63fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.370%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.63%15.07%15.11%16.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.765.706.5018.87%17.35%17.54%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 64.16%1.56fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -7.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.82%64.16%63.16%66.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.5074.07%70.30%70.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV +3.82%
Edge +0.763%
Kelly +0.954%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%20.76%21.74%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.224.105.0025.64%23.70%24.39%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 15.07%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 64.16%; Draw: 20.76%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.82. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.00, producing a positive expected value of +3.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.57%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -10.17%E -7.26%K -25.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +3.82%E +0.763%K +0.954%G +0.036%8.1%2026-06-24 15:00
BetMGM🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.03%E -0.313%K -0.370%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.96%EV -10.09%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 10:30
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -9.57%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.11%EV -5.68%E -3.86%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.43%EV -10.09%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-04 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -11.08%E -1.88%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.01%EV -8.89%E -6.26%K -21.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -14.87%E -3.63%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 16:08
Winamax (DE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -18.61%E -3.45%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.30%EV -9.53%E -6.76%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -14.87%E -3.63%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-29 07:05
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.07%EV -17.10%E -3.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.82%EV -8.24%E -5.77%K -19.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.36%EV -20.12%E -3.80%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 61.95%EV -10.17%E -7.26%K -25.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-29 07:00
NetBet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.42%EV -17.10%E -3.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 62.83%EV -13.38%E -9.91%K -38.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.75%EV -19.02%E -4.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-13 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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