Language:English
Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)
Prediction 13.35%7.49fair odd
EV +4.16%
Edge +0.534%
Kelly +0.612%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 7.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.07%13.51%13.23%15.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.017.007.8016.67%14.26%14.29%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC Freiburg (Visit)
Prediction 69.24%1.44fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -11.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.68%69.02%69.42%70.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.351.3876.92%74.63%74.07%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.41%5.74fair odd
EV +0.089%
Edge +0.015%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.33%17.48%17.35%19.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.165.255.7520.83%19.39%19.05%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 13.35%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 69.24%; Draw: 17.41%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.49. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV +4.16%E +0.534%K +0.612%G +0.025% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.91%E -5.95%K -23.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -4.26%E -0.775%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.27%EV -5.14%E -3.75%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +0.157%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.91%E -5.95%K -23.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.97%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 15:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -3.18%E -0.439%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.69%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.26%E -0.775%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.96%EV -3.85%E -0.535%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.10%EV -6.53%E -4.84%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -9.48%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -4.26%E -0.775%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.53%E -4.84%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.84%E -4.29%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -6.52%E -0.931%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -9.30%E -7.10%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -8.61%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-23 15:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -9.86%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.34%EV -7.22%E -5.39%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.26%E -0.775%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.42%EV -9.86%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -7.91%E -5.95%K -23.98%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -14.71%E -3.00%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.16%EV -9.86%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.33%EV -9.99%E -7.68%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.16%EV -9.86%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.33%EV -9.99%E -7.68%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.16%EV -9.86%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.33%EV -9.99%E -7.68%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -16.45%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -13.20%E -2.03%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.86%EV -8.60%E -6.52%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.74%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-23 15:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -13.20%E -2.03%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -9.99%E -7.68%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -14.71%E -3.00%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.34%EV -16.54%E -2.65%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 68.42%EV -9.30%E -7.10%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.24%EV -9.48%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-23 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -19.87%E -3.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.03%EV -4.45%E -3.22%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV +0.089%E +0.015%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 15:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.