The School of Odds

Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 15.03%6.66fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.360%
Kelly -0.425%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.63%15.03%15.03%15.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.006.256.256.5017%16%16%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 64.74%1.54fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -5.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.40%64.74%64.74%66.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.5071%69%69%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.23%4.94fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.233%
Kelly +0.292%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%20.23%20.23%21.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.334.674.675.0023%21%21%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.85%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.36%E -6.69%K -23.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +1.17%E +0.233%K +0.292%G +0.003%8.1%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.34%E -0.360%K -0.425%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -2.89%E -1.93%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.96%EV -12.39%E -2.86%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-11 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.