Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg

2026-08-21 16:00 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Odds

6.0016.67%Min

6.2516.00%Mean

6.2516.00%Median

6.5015.38%Max

Consensus probabilities

14.63%6.834Min

15.42%6.486Max

15.03%6.656Mean

15.03%6.656Median

15.03%6.656IQM

14.95%6.689Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.50 under the IQM model: 15.03%

EV -2.34%Edge -0.360%Kelly -0.425%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: SC Freiburg (Visit)

Odds

1.4071.43%Min

1.4568.97%Mean

1.4568.97%Median

1.5066.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

63.40%1.577Min

66.08%1.513Max

64.74%1.545Mean

64.74%1.545Median

64.74%1.545IQM

64.48%1.551Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 64.74%

EV -2.89%Edge -1.93%Kelly -5.78%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

4.3323.09%Min

4.6721.44%Mean

4.6721.44%Median

5.0020.00%Max

Consensus probabilities

18.50%5.405Min

21.96%4.553Max

20.23%4.942Mean

20.23%4.942Median

20.23%4.942IQM

20.57%4.862Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.00 under the IQM model: 20.23%

EV +1.17%Edge +0.233%Kelly +0.292%Growth +0.003%

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)	SC Freiburg (Visit)	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)	6.00I 16.67% NM 15.42%EV -9.85% E -1.64% K -1.97% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 66.08%EV -9.36% E -6.69% K -23.40% G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00% NM 18.50%EV +1.17% E +0.233% K +0.292% G +0.003%	8.1%	2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.63%EV -2.34% E -0.360% K -0.425% G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.40%EV -2.89% E -1.93% K -5.78% G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09% NM 21.96%EV -12.39% E -2.86% K -3.72% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-11 09:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth