The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Würzburger Kickers v 1. FC Köln

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Würzburger Kickers (Local)

Prediction 10.18%9.83fair odd
EV +11.96%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.43%10.18%10.18%13.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.947.2511.0016.00%12.60%13.79%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 75.06%1.33fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.29%75.06%75.06%77.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.211.3183.33%81.14%82.64%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.77%6.77fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.27%14.77%14.77%16.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.895.926.5019.23%16.99%16.88%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Würzburger Kickers (Local): 10.18%; 1. FC Köln (Visit): 75.06%; Draw: 14.77%. For FC Würzburger Kickers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +11.96%E +1.09%K +1.20%G +0.143%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -4.02%E -0.619%K -0.731%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.92%EV -18.58%E -2.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.81%EV -1.68%E -1.28%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.26%EV -7.71%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-11 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.35%EV -33.84%E -5.21%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.15%EV -8.43%E -6.91%K -38.33%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.50%EV -17.31%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-06-23 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 13.49%EV -36.39%E -5.82%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 70.29%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.66%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.22%EV -23.22%E -4.46%K -5.53%G +0.000%18.6%2026-06-23 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.