The School of Odds

FC Würzburger Kickers v 1. FC Köln

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Würzburger Kickers (Local)

Prediction 10.18%9.83fair odd
EV +11.96%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.43%10.18%10.18%13.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.257.947.2511.0016%13%14%9%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 75.06%1.33fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.29%75.06%75.06%77.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.211.3183%81%83%76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 14.77%6.77fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.27%14.77%14.77%16.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.205.895.926.5019%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +11.96%E +1.09%K +1.20%G +0.143%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -4.02%E -0.619%K -0.731%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM8.00I 12.50%NM 11.92%EV -18.58%E -2.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.81%EV -1.68%E -1.28%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.26%EV -7.71%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-11 11:00
Winamax (DE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.35%EV -33.84%E -5.21%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.15%EV -8.43%E -6.91%K -38.33%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.50%EV -17.31%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-06-23 11:30
Winamax (FR)6.25I 16.00%NM 13.49%EV -36.39%E -5.82%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 70.29%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.66%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.22%EV -23.22%E -4.46%K -5.53%G +0.000%18.6%2026-06-23 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.