The School of Odds

FC Würzburger Kickers v 1. FC Köln

2026-08-24 16:00 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: FC Würzburger Kickers (Local)

6.0016.67%Min
7.8012.82%Mean
7.5013.33%Median
11.009.09%Max
8.43%11.859Min
13.93%7.176Max
10.18%9.825Mean
10.18%9.825Median
10.18%9.825IQM
10.53%9.495Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 11.00 under the IQM model: 10.18%

EV +11.96%Edge +1.09%Kelly +1.20%Growth +0.143%

Option 2: 1. FC Köln (Visit)

1.2083.33%Min
1.2480.65%Mean
1.2381.30%Median
1.3176.34%Max
69.67%1.435Min
77.30%1.294Max
75.06%1.332Mean
75.06%1.332Median
75.06%1.332IQM
74.60%1.340Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.31 under the IQM model: 75.06%

EV -1.68%Edge -1.28%Kelly -5.41%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

5.1019.61%Min
5.8717.04%Mean
6.0016.67%Median
6.5015.38%Max
14.27%7.008Min
16.39%6.100Max
14.77%6.772Mean
14.77%6.772Median
14.77%6.772IQM
14.87%6.726Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.50 under the IQM model: 14.77%

EV -4.02%Edge -0.619%Kelly -0.731%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Würzburger Kickers (Local) ▼1. FC Köln (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)11.00I 9.09% NM 8.43%EV +11.96% E +1.09% K +1.20% G +0.143%1.20I 83.33% NM 77.30%EV -9.93% E -8.28% K -49.66% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.27%EV -4.02% E -0.619% K -0.731% G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-24 15:00
BetMGM8.00I 12.50% NM 11.92%EV -18.58% E -2.32% K -2.65% G +0.000%1.31I 76.34% NM 72.81%EV -1.68% E -1.28% K -5.41% G +0.000%6.25I 16.00% NM 15.26%EV -7.71% E -1.23% K -1.47% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 10:30
LeoVegas7.50I 13.33% NM 12.19%EV -23.67% E -3.16% K -3.64% G +0.000%1.26I 79.37% NM 72.57%EV -5.43% E -4.31% K -20.88% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.24%EV -11.40% E -1.90% K -2.28% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-05 10:30
Winamax (DE)6.50I 15.38% NM 13.39%EV -33.84% E -5.21% K -6.15% G +0.000%1.23I 81.30% NM 70.78%EV -7.68% E -6.24% K -33.40% G +0.000%5.50I 18.18% NM 15.83%EV -18.79% E -3.42% K -4.17% G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-05 10:30
Winamax (FR)6.00I 16.67% NM 13.93%EV -38.93% E -6.49% K -7.79% G +0.000%1.20I 83.33% NM 69.67%EV -9.93% E -8.28% K -49.66% G +0.000%5.10I 19.61% NM 16.39%EV -24.69% E -4.84% K -6.02% G +0.000%19.6%2026-07-05 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth