The School of Odds

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 v 1. FC Nürnberg

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV +2.39%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +0.920%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.68%27.85%28.44%29.44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.853.133.103.6035%32%32%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 44.27%2.26fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%45.20%44.27%48.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.011.982.1553%50%51%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.28%3.67fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.68%26.95%27.28%27.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.253.6032%30%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV +2.39%E +0.664%K +0.920%G +0.022%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -15.88%E -8.36%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -1.78%E -0.493%K -0.683%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 17:19
BetMGM3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.56%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.81%E -2.24%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-11 09:59
Codere (IT)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.56%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.03%E -3.35%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.98%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.03%E -3.35%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 05:00
Betclic (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -12.34%E -6.23%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.29%EV -12.14%E -3.77%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -14.67%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.07%EV -12.34%E -6.23%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.85%EV -11.33%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.44%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -11.45%E -5.73%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -12.69%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-25 05:00
NetBet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 28.73%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.92%EV -14.55%E -7.54%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -15.42%E -4.97%K -7.34%G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 29.38%EV -18.94%E -6.65%K -10.24%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 43.61%EV -15.00%E -7.81%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.01%EV -15.42%E -4.97%K -7.34%G +0.000%19.4%2026-07-25 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.