The School of Odds

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 v 1. FC Nürnberg

2026-08-22 13:30 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis)

Option 1: FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)

2.9034.48%Min
3.2131.11%Mean
3.2530.77%Median
3.9025.64%Max
23.69%4.221Min
29.35%3.408Max
26.88%3.720Mean
28.11%3.557Median
26.88%3.720IQM
27.02%3.701Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.90 under the IQM model: 26.88%

EV +4.84%Edge +1.24%Kelly +1.67%Growth +0.081%

Option 2: 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

1.8055.56%Min
1.9950.32%Mean
1.9750.76%Median
2.1546.51%Max
43.20%2.315Min
51.33%1.948Max
46.51%2.150Mean
44.60%2.242Median
46.51%2.150IQM
46.30%2.160Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.15 under the IQM model: 46.51%

EV -0.004%Edge -0.002%Kelly -0.003%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

3.1032.26%Min
3.3429.91%Mean
3.4029.41%Median
3.7027.03%Max
24.97%4.004Min
27.57%3.628Max
26.61%3.758Mean
27.29%3.665Median
26.61%3.758IQM
26.68%3.748Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.70 under the IQM model: 26.61%

EV -1.55%Edge -0.418%Kelly -0.573%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local) ▼1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)3.90I 25.64% NM 23.69%EV +4.84% E +1.24% K +1.67% G +0.081%1.80I 55.56% NM 51.33%EV -16.28% E -9.05% K -20.35% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.97%EV -1.55% E -0.418% K -0.573% G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-06 22:09
Codere (IT)3.30I 30.30% NM 28.11%EV -11.29% E -3.42% K -4.91% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 44.60%EV -3.26% E -1.57% K -3.02% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.29%EV -9.53% E -2.80% K -3.97% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 10:30
BetMGM3.25I 30.77% NM 28.84%EV -12.64% E -3.89% K -5.62% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.59%EV -0.004% E -0.002% K -0.003% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.57%EV -9.53% E -2.80% K -3.97% G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-11 09:59
LeoVegas3.25I 30.77% NM 28.24%EV -12.64% E -3.89% K -5.62% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.77%EV -4.65% E -2.27% K -4.43% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.99%EV -9.53% E -2.80% K -3.97% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 10:25
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33% NM 28.95%EV -19.36% E -6.45% K -9.68% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 44.32%EV -8.84% E -4.51% K -9.21% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 26.73%EV -13.52% E -4.16% K -6.01% G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-05 10:30
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48% NM 29.35%EV -22.04% E -7.60% K -11.60% G +0.000%1.97I 50.76% NM 43.20%EV -8.38% E -4.25% K -8.63% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.45%EV -17.51% E -5.65% K -8.34% G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-05 10:30
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48% NM 29.01%EV -22.04% E -7.60% K -11.60% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 44.28%EV -11.63% E -6.12% K -12.92% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 26.71%EV -16.18% E -5.14% K -7.53% G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-05 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Arbitrage (1 combination)+0.83%Tipico (DE) 3.90 (25.9%) / BetMGM 2.15 (46.9%) / Tipico (DE) 3.70 (27.3%)Show details
FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE) 3.90 (25.9%)BetMGM 2.15 (46.9%)Tipico (DE) 3.70 (27.3%)+0.827%