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FC Viktoria Köln 1904 v 1. FC Nürnberg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)
Prediction 20.52%4.87fair odd
EV -5.62%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.11%20.59%20.50%21.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.444.504.6024.39%22.52%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)
Prediction 56.97%1.76fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -6.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.83%56.82%57.01%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.651.6863.69%61.27%60.79%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.51%4.44fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.760%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%22.60%22.49%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.104.204.3325.64%24.40%23.81%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local): 20.52%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 56.97%; Draw: 22.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.33, with an expected value of -2.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -5.62%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.63%EV -6.56%E -4.00%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.83%EV -2.53%E -0.584%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.62%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -4.33%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 12:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.62%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.62%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.13%E -4.38%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 12:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.29%E -2.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.29%E -2.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.29%E -2.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.29%E -2.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.29%E -2.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -4.85%E -2.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 08:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.96%E -2.49%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -8.84%E -5.53%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 12:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.74%EV -9.41%E -5.92%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 13:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.65%EV -8.83%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 13:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%EV -7.68%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%EV -9.98%E -6.32%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -9.96%E -2.49%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.73%E -2.21%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -7.70%E -4.76%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -3.21%E -0.745%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 12:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%EV -12.81%E -3.01%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.83%EV -7.70%E -4.76%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.90%EV -11.08%E -2.81%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.83%E -3.29%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.77%EV -9.98%E -6.32%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -7.71%E -1.88%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-22 12:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.52%EV -15.88%E -3.87%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.85%EV -9.98%E -6.32%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.52%EV -15.88%E -3.87%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.85%EV -9.98%E -6.32%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.45%EV -15.88%E -3.87%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.01%EV -10.55%E -6.72%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-08-22 13:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.