Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 v 1. FC Nürnberg

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

27%

48%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)

Prediction 26.73%3.74fair odd

EV +6.91%

Edge +1.73%

Kelly +2.30%

Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.10%26.73%28.24%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.213.104.0033.90%31.19%32.26%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 47.57%2.10fair odd

EV +2.28%

Edge +1.06%

Kelly +1.99%

Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.39%47.57%44.77%54.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.992.022.1558.82%50.22%49.38%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd

EV +5.37%

Edge +1.31%

Kelly +1.73%

Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.54%25.70%26.99%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.153.393.304.1031.75%29.47%30.30%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local): 26.73%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 47.57%; Draw: 25.70%. For FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +6.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV +6.91%E +1.73%K +2.30%G +0.159%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -19.12%E -11.25%K -27.32%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV +5.37%E +1.31%K +1.73%G +0.093%	8.2%	2026-08-09 14:55
BetMGM🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.99%G +0.045%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-11 09:59
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -2.47%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-08-14 13:34
LeoVegas🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -14.47%E -4.52%K -6.58%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -0.095%E -0.045%K -0.086%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -15.19%E -4.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-08-04 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -19.82%E -6.61%K -9.91%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -2.47%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -15.19%E -4.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%	12.4%	2026-08-07 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -19.82%E -6.61%K -9.91%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.19%E -4.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-07-29 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.32%EV -19.82%E -6.61%K -9.91%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 44.71%EV -9.61%E -5.06%K -10.68%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 26.97%EV -19.05%E -6.05%K -8.86%G +0.000%	17.7%	2026-08-14 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.31%EV -21.16%E -7.17%K -10.85%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.80%E -2.93%K -5.92%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.02%EV -17.76%E -5.55%K -8.07%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-29 14:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (6 combinations) +4.27%Tipico (DE) 4.00 (26.1%) / BetMGM 2.15 (48.5%) / Tipico (DE) 4.10 (25.4%)Show all 6 combinations

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Local)	1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)	Draw	Margin
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (26.1%)	BetMGM🎯 2.15 (48.5%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.4%)	+4.27%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.8%)	LeoVegas🎯 2.10 (49.1%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.1%)	+3.08%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)	Betclic (FR)🎯 2.05 (49.7%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.8%)	+1.86%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)	Unibet (FR)🎯 2.05 (49.7%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.8%)	+1.86%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.2%)	Winamax (DE)🎯 2.00 (50.3%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.5%)	+0.613%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.0%)	Winamax (FR)🎯 1.98 (50.6%)	Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.4%)	+0.105%

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