The School of Odds
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Elversberg v SV Darmstadt 98

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:45 UTC

Final: Elversberg 0–2 SV Darmstadt 98

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elversberg (Local)

Prediction 62.61%1.60fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -7.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.51%62.53%62.62%65.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.441.5373.53%69.13%69.44%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit)

Prediction 16.96%5.90fair odd
EV +5.98%
Edge +0.956%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.05%17.02%16.93%18.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.855.635.506.2520.62%17.77%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.43%4.89fair odd
EV +0.105%
Edge +0.021%
Kelly +0.027%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.16%20.45%20.45%21.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.604.604.9024.39%21.76%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elversberg (Local): 62.61%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit): 16.96%; Draw: 20.43%. For SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.90. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.60%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV +5.98%E +0.956%K +1.14%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.76%EV -10.46%E -7.32%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +5.98%E +0.956%K +1.14%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.76%EV -10.46%E -7.32%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +5.98%E +0.956%K +1.14%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.76%EV -10.46%E -7.32%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +5.98%E +0.956%K +1.14%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.76%EV -10.46%E -7.32%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +5.98%E +0.956%K +1.14%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.49%EV -5.45%E -3.61%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.19%EV +0.380%E +0.064%K +0.077%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.31%EV -3.57%E -0.757%K -0.960%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-27 19:30
1xBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.22%EV -4.83%E -3.18%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.43%EV -0.807%E -0.138%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.36%EV -3.57%E -0.757%K -0.960%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 19:40
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -12.34%E -8.81%K -30.85%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -1.65%E -0.285%K -0.345%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-27 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.41%EV -12.34%E -8.81%K -30.85%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -1.65%E -0.285%K -0.345%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -13.59%E -9.85%K -35.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -2.50%E -0.435%K -0.527%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-27 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -13.59%E -9.85%K -35.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -2.50%E -0.435%K -0.527%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-27 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -14.84%E -10.92%K -41.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -2.50%E -0.435%K -0.527%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-27 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.32%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -5.05%E -0.901%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -3.98%E -0.847%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -4.20%E -2.75%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
picklebet_au🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -1.94%E -0.404%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-27 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.82%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.98%E -0.847%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -3.98%E -0.847%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 19:10
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.07%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 19:20
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.54%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.54%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -6.74%E -1.23%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.54%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -8.44%E -1.56%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.57%EV -11.09%E -7.81%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -10.13%E -1.91%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.66%EV -12.15%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-27 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.68%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.70%EV -13.52%E -2.65%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.62%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.12%EV -13.59%E -9.85%K -35.77%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.08%EV -13.52%E -2.65%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.80%EV -10.11%E -2.30%K -2.97%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-27 19:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.22%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -11.54%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-27 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -9.21%E -6.35%K -20.46%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.09%EV -17.76%E -3.66%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.40%EV -16.24%E -3.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-27 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.