Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Braunschweig v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Braunschweig (Local)

Prediction 20.38%4.91fair odd
EV -6.24%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.12%20.38%20.38%20.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.604.604.6021.74%21.74%21.74%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 57.02%1.75fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.19%57.02%57.02%57.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.6962.50%60.79%60.79%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.60%4.42fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%22.60%22.60%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.154.154.2024.39%24.10%24.10%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Braunschweig (Local): 20.38%; Union Berlin (Visit): 57.02%; Draw: 22.60%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.69, with an expected value of -3.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.19%EV -3.64%E -2.15%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-11 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-07 13:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.