The School of Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:45 UTC

Final: Bayer Leverkusen 5–2 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 75.76%1.32fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -14.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.05%75.84%75.71%78.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2785.47%81.78%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 9.91%10.09fair odd
EV +5.05%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.526%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 10.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.97%9.88%10.02%11.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.809.059.0010.6012.82%11.05%11.11%9.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.33%6.98fair odd
EV +7.51%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.56%14.28%14.27%15.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.476.507.5018.18%15.46%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 75.76%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 9.91%; Draw: 14.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.98. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.48%EV -9.09%E -7.58%K -45.47%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +4.06%E +0.387%K +0.427%G +0.017%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV +7.51%E +1.00%K +1.15%G +0.087%6.2%2026-10-28 19:04
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV -6.82%E -5.55%K -29.66%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 8.98%EV +5.05%E +0.476%K +0.526%G +0.027%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.59%EV +0.484%E +0.069%K +0.080%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-28 19:40
picklebet_au🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -7.58%E -6.21%K -34.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -0.897%E -0.090%K -0.100%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.340%E +0.049%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -7.58%E -6.21%K -34.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +0.340%E +0.049%K +0.057%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 18:50
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%10.40I 9.62%NM 9.21%EV +3.07%E +0.295%K +0.326%G +0.010%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.15%EV -2.96%E -0.437%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-28 19:40
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.45%EV -3.79%E -2.98%K -14.04%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.36%EV -8.33%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.20%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-28 18:54
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -3.24%E -0.480%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.08%EV -6.82%E -5.55%K -29.66%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.75%EV -4.86%E -0.506%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.18%EV -5.39%E -0.817%K -0.963%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -6.82%E -5.55%K -29.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -0.897%E -0.090%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.83%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 18:50
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -7.58%E -6.21%K -34.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -0.897%E -0.090%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.83%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -7.58%E -6.21%K -34.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -6.83%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -9.09%E -7.58%K -45.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -5.85%E -0.616%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -6.83%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:25
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.74%EV -11.37%E -9.71%K -66.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -5.85%E -0.616%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -6.83%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-28 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.58%E -6.21%K -34.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.48%EV -10.41%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-28 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.36%EV -8.34%E -6.89%K -39.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -10.41%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.36%EV -8.34%E -6.89%K -39.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -10.41%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.67%EV -9.85%E -8.28%K -51.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.22%EV -10.41%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-28 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.15%EV -9.09%E -7.58%K -45.47%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.31%EV -13.28%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.54%EV -11.13%E -1.79%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-28 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.25%EV -9.09%E -7.58%K -45.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -12.56%E -2.06%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.25%EV -9.09%E -7.58%K -45.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -20.72%E -2.59%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -12.56%E -2.06%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 19:00
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -13.99%E -2.33%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 19:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -13.99%E -2.33%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.31%E -4.24%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -10.81%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -13.99%E -2.33%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.40%EV -10.61%E -8.99%K -58.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -15.76%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.27%EV -17.58%E -3.06%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-28 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.05%EV -9.85%E -8.28%K -51.85%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.14%EV -22.70%E -2.91%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.81%EV -21.16%E -3.85%K -4.70%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-28 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-10-28 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-10-28 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-10-28 19:40