The School of Odds
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1. FC Phönix Lübeck v SC Paderborn

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Phönix Lübeck 2–4 SC Paderborn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local)

Prediction 7.65%13.07fair odd
EV +22.41%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.335%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.85%7.79%7.28%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.5113.0016.0010.00%7.40%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 81.20%1.23fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -23.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.87%81.08%81.58%84.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1893.46%89.33%89.29%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.15%8.97fair odd
EV +5.88%
Edge +0.619%
Kelly +0.692%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.85%11.13%11.14%12.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.789.009.5013.33%11.39%11.11%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local): 7.65%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 81.20%; Draw: 11.15%. For 1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.07. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +22.41%E +1.40%K +1.49%G +0.335%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.30%EV -9.86%E -8.89%K -89.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +5.88%E +0.619%K +0.692%G +0.041%6.9%2026-08-23 15:50
Unibet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +22.41%E +1.40%K +1.49%G +0.335%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.30%EV -9.86%E -8.89%K -89.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +5.88%E +0.619%K +0.692%G +0.041%6.9%2026-08-23 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +22.41%E +1.40%K +1.49%G +0.335%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.30%EV -9.86%E -8.89%K -89.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +5.88%E +0.619%K +0.692%G +0.041%6.9%2026-08-23 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +22.41%E +1.40%K +1.49%G +0.335%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.30%EV -9.86%E -8.89%K -89.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +5.88%E +0.619%K +0.692%G +0.041%6.9%2026-08-23 15:49
Grosvenor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV +14.76%E +0.984%K +1.05%G +0.156%1.09I 91.74%NM 83.77%EV -11.49%E -10.54%K -127.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV +0.308%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.39%EV +7.11%E +0.508%K +0.547%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 83.66%EV -13.11%E -12.25%K -187.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV +0.308%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.39%EV +7.11%E +0.508%K +0.547%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 83.66%EV -13.11%E -12.25%K -187.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV +0.308%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.39%EV +7.11%E +0.508%K +0.547%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 83.66%EV -13.11%E -12.25%K -187.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV +0.308%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.25%EV -0.539%E -0.041%K -0.045%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.25%EV -5.80%E -5.00%K -36.27%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.49%EV -8.61%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 15:50
LeoVegas🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -0.539%E -0.041%K -0.045%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.72%EV -6.62%E -5.75%K -44.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -5.26%E -0.619%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 15:39
Unibet (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -0.539%E -0.041%K -0.045%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.72%EV -6.62%E -5.75%K -44.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -5.26%E -0.619%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 15:54
Codere (IT)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -0.539%E -0.041%K -0.045%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.95%EV -7.43%E -6.52%K -53.05%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.86%EV -4.15%E -0.483%K -0.546%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 15:10
betfred_uk🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -0.539%E -0.041%K -0.045%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -9.05%E -8.08%K -75.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.84%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯12.75I 7.84%NM 7.18%EV -2.45%E -0.192%K -0.209%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.73%EV -9.05%E -8.08%K -75.43%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.09%EV -8.05%E -0.976%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 15:38
Winamax (DE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -8.19%E -0.682%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.99%EV -8.24%E -7.29%K -63.38%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.29%EV +0.308%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 15:10
NetBet (FR)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -8.19%E -0.682%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -7.43%E -6.52%K -53.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -16.41%E -2.19%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 15:54
BetMGM🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -19.67%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.87%EV -4.18%E -3.54%K -23.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.88%E +0.619%K +0.692%G +0.041%4.8%2026-08-23 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.95%EV -23.49%E -2.35%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 79.87%EV -9.05%E -8.08%K -75.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -10.84%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.