The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

1. FC Phönix Lübeck v SC Paderborn

2026-08-23 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local)

Prediction 7.17%13.95fair odd
EV +36.23%
Edge +1.91%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.729%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.94%7.12%6.85%8.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5015.3316.0019.009.52%6.52%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 82.25%1.22fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -3.96%
Kelly -28.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.50%82.51%82.36%86.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.101.101.1695.24%91.17%91.32%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.58%9.45fair odd
EV +16.41%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.269%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.59%10.37%10.79%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.469.5011.0012.50%10.57%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: 1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local): 7.17%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 82.25%; Draw: 10.58%. For 1. FC Phönix Lübeck (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.95. 11 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 19.00, producing a positive expected value of +36.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV +36.23%E +1.91%K +2.01%G +0.729%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.12%EV -10.35%E -9.50%K -115.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV +11.12%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.130%6.5%2026-08-20 14:59
ATG (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV +36.23%E +1.91%K +2.01%G +0.729%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.12%EV -10.35%E -9.50%K -115.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV +11.12%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.130%6.5%2026-08-20 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV +36.23%E +1.91%K +2.01%G +0.729%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.12%EV -10.35%E -9.50%K -115.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV +11.12%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.130%6.5%2026-08-20 14:59
Tipico (DE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +21.89%E +1.29%K +1.37%G +0.299%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.86%EV -9.53%E -8.66%K -95.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +16.41%E +1.49%K +1.64%G +0.269%5.9%2026-08-20 14:59
Grosvenor🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.35%EV +21.89%E +1.29%K +1.37%G +0.299%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.06%EV -12.00%E -11.21%K -171.36%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 14:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27%EV +21.89%E +1.29%K +1.37%G +0.299%1.05I 95.24%NM 85.30%EV -13.64%E -12.99%K -272.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 14:59
Virgin Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27%EV +21.89%E +1.29%K +1.37%G +0.299%1.05I 95.24%NM 85.30%EV -13.64%E -12.99%K -272.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 14:59
LiveScore Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27%EV +21.89%E +1.29%K +1.37%G +0.299%1.05I 95.24%NM 85.30%EV -13.64%E -12.99%K -272.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV +7.55%E +0.503%K +0.539%G +0.041%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.27%EV -7.06%E -6.25%K -54.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -4.76%E -0.528%K -0.594%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-20 15:00
LeoVegas🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +7.55%E +0.503%K +0.539%G +0.041%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.97%EV -8.71%E -7.84%K -79.14%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 14:59
Codere (IT)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV +0.378%E +0.027%K +0.029%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -7.06%E -6.25%K -54.31%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.07%EV -11.11%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.84%EV -6.79%E -0.522%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 82.37%EV -11.17%E -10.35%K -139.66%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.78%EV -12.69%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 15:54
Winamax (DE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -10.38%E -0.830%K -0.902%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.88%E -7.04%K -65.69%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV +0.536%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 14:58
Betclic (FR)🎯11.75I 8.51%NM 7.80%EV -15.75%E -1.34%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.09%EV -7.06%E -6.25%K -54.31%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.11%EV -12.69%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-20 16:03
BetMGM🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.55%E -1.53%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.18%EV -4.59%E -3.96%K -28.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV +5.83%E +0.583%K +0.647%G +0.038%4.9%2026-08-20 14:59
Winamax (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.43%EV -24.72%E -2.35%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.50%EV -9.53%E -8.66%K -95.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.07%EV -15.34%E -1.92%K -2.19%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-20 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.