The School of Odds
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1. FC Köln v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:45 UTC

Final: 1. FC Köln 5–0 Union Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 53.01%1.89fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -5.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.02%52.98%52.93%54.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.741.751.8062.11%57.35%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 23.12%4.33fair odd
EV +5.89%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 4.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.97%23.15%23.19%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.433.964.004.5829.15%25.25%25.00%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.87%4.19fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%23.87%23.88%24.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.843.854.0027.40%26.02%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 53.01%; Union Berlin (Visit): 23.12%; Draw: 23.87%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.89%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.97%EV +5.89%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.097%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.14%EV -4.99%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 19:30
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.81%EV -5.65%E -3.17%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.82%EV +1.50%E +0.342%K +0.443%G +0.007%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.37%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-27 19:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.89%E -0.688%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.51%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 19:30
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.89%E -0.688%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -2.89%E -0.688%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.90%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.20%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.90%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.12%E -2.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.12%E -2.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.12%E -2.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.12%E -2.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.12%E -2.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.71%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 19:35
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.18%E -3.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -4.51%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 19:30
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -6.18%E -3.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.90%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 19:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.77%E -4.46%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.51%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 19:15
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -9.29%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-27 19:30
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -9.89%E -5.82%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.68%E -3.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 19:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.11%EV -14.66%E -9.10%K -24.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.55%EV -11.68%E -3.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-27 19:20
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -8.30%E -4.80%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -10.98%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -10.48%E -2.80%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-27 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -9.89%E -5.82%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -10.98%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.10%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -8.83%E -5.13%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -10.98%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -10.48%E -2.80%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 19:30
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.29%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.29%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.24%E -4.14%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.29%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.30%EV -9.36%E -5.47%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -11.68%E -3.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-27 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.30%EV -9.36%E -5.47%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -11.68%E -3.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-27 19:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.12%EV -9.36%E -5.47%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -12.87%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-27 19:30
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -4.59%E -2.55%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.48%E -2.80%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.11%EV -9.89%E -5.82%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -12.87%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.02%EV -8.83%E -5.13%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.58%EV -20.69%E -6.03%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -10.48%E -2.80%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-27 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.