The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Werder Bremen v VfB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-09-21 16:01 UTC

Final: Werder Bremen 1–1 VfB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 56.17%1.78fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -6.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.41%56.17%56.17%57.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.691.701.7063.69%59.27%58.82%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.01%22.92%22.92%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.673.604.1027.78%27.23%27.78%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.91%4.78fair odd
EV -7.99%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%20.91%20.91%22.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.903.993.904.4025.64%25.09%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 56.17%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 22.92%; Draw: 20.91%. For Werder Bremen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -4.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -4.51%E -2.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.48%E -4.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -18.45%E -4.73%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-21 15:39
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.86%EV -5.08%E -3.00%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 23.83%EV -10.84%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -9.04%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-21 15:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.48%EV -11.82%E -7.53%K -20.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -7.99%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-21 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.82%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%2.9%2026-09-21 15:59