The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 45.33%2.21fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -4.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.33%45.33%46.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.951.942.0952.36%51.32%51.55%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 29.42%3.40fair odd
EV -8.81%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.71%29.42%29.42%31.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.023.103.1037.04%33.14%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.25%3.96fair odd
EV -8.59%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.36%25.25%25.25%25.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.493.503.6230.77%28.66%28.57%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 45.33%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 29.42%; Draw: 25.25%. For Werder Bremen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.09, with an expected value of -5.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.34%EV -5.26%E -2.51%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 29.99%EV -9.11%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.67%EV -8.84%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 12:09
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.28%EV -9.79%E -4.92%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.83%EV -11.17%E -3.70%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 24.89%EV -8.59%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 04:35
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.60%E -5.95%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 13:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.60%E -5.95%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.60%E -5.95%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:54
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.87%EV -12.06%E -6.21%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.71%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 13:52
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.32%EV -12.51%E -6.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -9.09%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 22:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.64%EV -13.42%E -7.02%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -19.11%E -6.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.36%EV -11.62%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-18 12:00
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 43.57%EV -13.42%E -7.02%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.82%EV -20.58%E -7.62%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.61%EV -17.93%E -5.52%K -7.97%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-18 12:03
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 43.57%EV -13.42%E -7.02%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.82%EV -20.58%E -7.62%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.61%EV -17.93%E -5.52%K -7.97%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-18 12:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.