Language:English
Werder Bremen v SGS Essen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Werder Bremen (Local)
Prediction 62.79%1.59fair odd
EV -7.70%
Edge -5.24%
Kelly -16.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.64%62.79%62.91%64.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.471.4773.53%68.91%68.03%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SGS Essen (Visit)
Prediction 16.02%6.24fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -0.896%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.37%16.02%16.12%16.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.465.405.9120.00%18.31%18.52%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.19%4.72fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.04%21.19%20.97%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.983.904.5026.67%25.15%25.64%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 62.79%; SGS Essen (Visit): 16.02%; Draw: 21.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -4.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 16.47%EV -10.42%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.41I 22.68%NM 20.88%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-27 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -13.47%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-26 12:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.58%E -6.66%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-27 18:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.58%E -6.66%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-27 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.58%E -6.66%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.58%E -6.66%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -17.37%E -4.45%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.51%EV -10.21%E -7.14%K -23.75%G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92%NM 15.37%EV -5.29%E -0.896%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -8.90%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-27 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.41%EV -12.10%E -8.64%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -7.06%E -1.22%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-27 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 61.17%EV -14.61%E -10.74%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.64%EV -19.88%E -3.98%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.19%EV -20.55%E -5.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-27 12:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.