The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Werder Bremen v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 13:01 UTC

Final: Werder Bremen 4–3 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 50.80%1.97fair odd
EV -7.54%
Edge -4.14%
Kelly -9.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.28%50.80%50.97%53.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.671.8260.61%58.52%59.88%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV -5.71%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%24.18%24.29%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.743.903.9030.30%26.72%25.64%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.332%
Kelly +0.441%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%25.02%24.74%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.704.0530.30%27.50%27.03%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 50.80%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 24.18%; Draw: 25.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.89%EV -10.08%E -5.70%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.11%EV +1.34%E +0.332%K +0.441%G +0.006%6.8%2026-10-25 12:59
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.97%EV -7.54%E -4.14%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.29%EV -7.65%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.74%EV -6.16%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.15%EV -12.62%E -7.34%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -11.10%E -6.34%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 13:00
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:16
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -15.16%E -9.08%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 13:20
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -11.10%E -6.34%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -9.92%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 13:00
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -12.12%E -7.00%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -20.22%E -6.13%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -9.92%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-24 19:39
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.56%E -4.76%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.92%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 12:25
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.56%E -4.76%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.92%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 12:25
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 50.37%EV -16.18%E -9.81%K -24.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.44%EV -17.80%E -5.24%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.42%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-25 12:59
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 50.37%EV -16.18%E -9.81%K -24.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.44%EV -17.80%E -5.24%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.42%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-25 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%12.4%2026-10-25 12:25