The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:31 UTC

Final: Werder Bremen 2–0 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 50.20%1.99fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -5.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%50.20%51.07%51.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.801.791.9057.14%55.56%56.02%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 25.06%3.99fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%25.06%24.50%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.603.7833.33%28.80%27.78%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.73%4.04fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%24.73%24.43%26.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.543.653.8231.25%28.21%27.40%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 50.20%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 25.06%; Draw: 24.73%. For Werder Bremen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.90, with an expected value of -4.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.96%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -9.13%E -5.04%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.52%EV -5.26%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.27%EV -5.52%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 16:25
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.24%EV -9.63%E -5.35%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.75%EV -24.81%E -8.27%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.01%EV -20.85%E -6.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%20.1%2026-08-30 16:10
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.27%EV -11.14%E -6.29%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -6.02%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.10%EV -11.14%E -6.29%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 16:24
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 47.55%EV -12.14%E -6.94%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.84%EV -22.31%E -7.20%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.60%EV -19.61%E -6.04%K -8.72%G +0.000%20.2%2026-08-30 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.