The School of Odds
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Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 13:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.291%
Kelly +0.379%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.75%23.38%23.55%25.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.673.604.3028.99%27.26%27.78%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 53.51%1.87fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -6.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.22%53.86%53.51%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.751.7762.50%58.12%57.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -0.864%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.76%22.95%25.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.753.704.2030.30%26.66%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 23.55%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 53.51%; Draw: 22.95%. For Werder Bremen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV +1.25%E +0.291%K +0.379%G +0.005%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.44%EV -6.36%E -3.64%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.81%EV -13.50%E -3.58%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -13.32%E -8.22%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -3.63%E -0.864%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Pinnacle🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 23.88%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -6.90%E -3.96%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.45%EV -4.55%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.17%E -2.09%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.36%E -3.64%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.51%E -2.70%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 13:00
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -8.17%E -2.09%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -10.64%E -6.37%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -17.40%E -4.83%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-14 13:00
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -9.04%E -5.32%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-14 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -9.04%E -5.32%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-14 13:00
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.64%E -6.37%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.81%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.64%E -6.37%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.81%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.64%E -6.37%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.81%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 12:59
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -15.23%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.61%EV -14.39%E -8.99%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%EV -12.81%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%16.6%2026-03-14 13:00
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.11%EV -15.23%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 51.68%EV -13.85%E -8.60%K -22.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.21%EV -24.28%E -7.36%K -10.56%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-14 12:58
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -18.76%E -5.44%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.22%EV -5.29%E -2.99%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -15.10%E -4.08%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%10.2%2026-03-14 13:00