Language:English
VfL Wolfsburg v Union Berlin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg (Local)
Prediction 75.28%1.33fair odd
EV -6.65%
Edge -5.36%
Kelly -27.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.37%74.95%75.28%76.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.191.171.2485.47%84.03%85.47%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Berlin (Visit)
Prediction 10.23%9.77fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.130%
Kelly -0.145%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 9.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.41%10.40%10.23%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.889.009.6514.29%11.26%11.11%10.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.48%6.90fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.47%14.65%14.48%16.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.996.106.7020.00%16.70%16.39%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 75.28%; Union Berlin (Visit): 10.23%; Draw: 14.48%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 9.65, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.20%EV -6.65%E -5.36%K -27.70%G +0.000% | 8.15I 12.27%NM 11.29%EV -16.60%E -2.04%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 14.51%EV -8.18%E -1.29%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-27 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.42%EV -7.40%E -6.02%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.86%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.15%E -6.68%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.34%E -3.70%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-27 18:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.15%E -6.68%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.34%E -3.70%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-27 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.15%E -6.68%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.34%E -3.70%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.15%E -6.68%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.34%E -3.70%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.29%EV -10.41%E -8.75%K -54.80%G +0.000% | 9.65I 10.36%NM 9.41%EV -1.25%E -0.130%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.30%EV -8.03%E -1.26%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-27 19:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.50%EV -11.17%E -9.46%K -62.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.03%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.47%EV -2.96%E -0.442%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-27 18:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.65%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -7.90%E -0.878%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.51%EV -11.65%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-27 15:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 71.37%EV -11.92%E -10.19%K -70.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 11.93%EV -28.37%E -4.05%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.70%EV -27.58%E -5.52%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-03-27 19:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.