The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

VfL Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 13:00 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 3–2 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 72.07%1.39fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -7.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.60%72.07%72.07%72.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.271.3580.00%78.16%78.74%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 12.62%7.93fair odd
EV +0.926%
Edge +0.116%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.15%12.62%12.62%15.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.757.488.008.0017.39%13.36%12.50%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.32%6.53fair odd
EV -8.09%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.02%15.32%15.32%18.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.984.806.0022.73%20.08%20.83%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 72.07%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 12.62%; Draw: 15.32%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.93. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.926%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -8.48%E -6.67%K -31.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV +0.926%E +0.116%K +0.132%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -26.47%E -5.51%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.03%EV -7.04%E -5.45%K -24.26%G +0.000%7.52I 13.30%NM 12.36%EV -5.13%E -0.682%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.62%EV -8.85%E -1.49%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 12:30
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.90%EV -7.76%E -6.06%K -27.70%G +0.000%7.48I 13.37%NM 12.13%EV -5.63%E -0.753%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.96%EV -18.04%E -3.37%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -9.92%E -7.93%K -39.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -11.69%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -8.09%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -2.71%E -2.01%K -7.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.05%EV -24.31%E -4.05%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -23.41%E -4.68%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 08:46
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -2.71%E -2.01%K -7.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.05%EV -24.31%E -4.05%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -23.41%E -4.68%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 08:51
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 66.60%EV -9.92%E -7.93%K -39.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.48%EV -27.46%E -4.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 18.92%EV -32.60%E -7.41%K -9.59%G +0.000%20.1%2026-05-02 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.