The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Wolfsburg v Hamburger SV

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 11:45 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 Hamburger SV

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 81.78%1.22fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -6.71%
Kelly -58.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.83%81.89%81.65%83.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1392.59%89.61%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 7.05%14.18fair odd
EV +9.34%
Edge +0.602%
Kelly +0.644%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 15.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.10%7.09%6.92%8.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.9911.5015.5010.53%8.34%8.70%6.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.17%8.96fair odd
EV +6.07%
Edge +0.639%
Kelly +0.714%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%11.03%11.43%14.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.757.457.259.5017.39%13.42%13.79%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 81.78%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 7.05%; Draw: 11.17%. For Hamburger SV (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.72%EV -7.59%E -6.71%K -58.37%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.10%EV +9.34%E +0.602%K +0.644%G +0.060%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.17%EV +3.84%E +0.412%K +0.462%G +0.018%5.7%2026-10-04 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +5.81%E +0.387%K +0.415%G +0.024%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -10.68%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 11:25
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -8.30%E -0.638%K -0.692%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.26%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 09:55
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -8.30%E -0.638%K -0.692%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.26%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -8.30%E -0.638%K -0.692%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.26%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -8.30%E -0.638%K -0.692%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.26%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.56%EV -11.68%E -10.81%K -145.96%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -8.30%E -0.638%K -0.692%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.50%EV +6.07%E +0.639%K +0.714%G +0.043%10.8%2026-10-04 11:10
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.53%EV -7.59%E -6.71%K -58.37%G +0.000%12.80I 7.81%NM 7.29%EV -9.71%E -0.759%K -0.823%G +0.000%9.16I 10.92%NM 10.18%EV +2.27%E +0.248%K +0.278%G +0.006%7.2%2026-10-04 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.41%E -7.50%K -70.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -18.88%E -1.64%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -21.84%E -3.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-04 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -7.59%E -6.71%K -58.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -22.41%E -2.04%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -10.68%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 11:30
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -7.59%E -6.71%K -58.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -22.41%E -2.04%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -10.68%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 11:30
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.07%EV -9.22%E -8.31%K -83.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -22.41%E -2.04%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.26%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-04 11:15
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 76.83%EV -11.68%E -10.81%K -145.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.73%EV -32.99%E -3.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.43%EV -35.80%E -6.23%K -7.54%G +0.000%20.5%2026-10-04 11:14
betano_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 76.83%EV -11.68%E -10.81%K -145.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.73%EV -32.99%E -3.47%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.43%EV -35.80%E -6.23%K -7.54%G +0.000%20.5%2026-10-04 11:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 83.24%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.03%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.73%3.6%2026-10-04 11:25