The School of Odds
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VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Köln

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 10:00 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 1. FC Köln

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 73.91%1.35fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -16.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.76%73.91%73.78%74.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.261.291.2984.75%79.51%77.52%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 10.54%9.49fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -0.401%
Kelly -0.450%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.13%10.54%10.48%13.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.236.759.1414.81%13.83%14.81%10.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.55%6.43fair odd
EV -6.68%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.91%15.55%15.74%18.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.124.906.0022.22%19.55%20.41%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 73.91%; 1. FC Köln (Visit): 10.54%; Draw: 15.55%. For 1. FC Köln (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 9.14, with an expected value of -3.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.76%EV -4.66%E -3.61%K -16.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -28.86%E -4.27%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.10%EV -23.79%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 07:25
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.07%EV -7.62%E -6.09%K -30.46%G +0.000%9.14I 10.94%NM 10.13%EV -3.67%E -0.401%K -0.450%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 15.80%EV -8.86%E -1.51%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 09:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -7.62%E -6.09%K -30.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -26.22%E -3.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -7.62%E -6.09%K -30.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -26.22%E -3.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 09:35
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.75%EV -8.36%E -6.74%K -34.81%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 10.55%EV -9.88%E -1.16%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.70%EV -16.01%E -2.97%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -11.31%E -9.43%K -56.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -10.41%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.09%EV -11.31%E -9.43%K -56.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -15.68%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 09:30
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -11.31%E -9.43%K -56.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -26.22%E -3.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -30.01%E -6.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-24 09:53
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 70.17%EV -12.79%E -10.84%K -71.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.83%EV -26.22%E -3.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.00%EV -28.46%E -6.19%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.8%2026-10-24 09:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 71.74%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.92%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%13.3%2026-10-24 09:55