The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00 UTC

Final: VfB Stuttgart 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 14.05%7.12fair odd
EV +9.59%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.135%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.56%14.05%14.05%16.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.615.965.807.8017.83%16.77%17.24%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 69.08%1.45fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -14.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.35%69.08%69.08%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.351.361.3778.13%73.88%73.53%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.87%5.93fair odd
EV -0.322%
Edge -0.054%
Kelly -0.066%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%16.87%16.87%19.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.764.605.9121.74%21.03%21.74%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 14.05%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 69.08%; Draw: 16.87%. For VfB Stuttgart (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.56%EV +9.59%E +1.23%K +1.41%G +0.135%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.42%EV -11.57%E -9.04%K -41.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -15.67%E -3.13%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 11:05
Unibet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:21
Grosvenor🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:21
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:21
Unibet (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:21
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.51%E -3.19%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -22.42%E -4.87%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯5.61I 17.83%NM 16.54%EV -21.18%E -3.77%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.75%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.47%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 15.71%EV -0.322%E -0.054%K -0.066%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 11:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎6.20I 16.13%NM 14.82%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.61%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.57%8.8%2026-09-13 11:56