The School of Odds
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VfB Stuttgart v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:01 UTC

Final: VfB Stuttgart 0–4 Union Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 36.37%2.75fair odd
EV -5.43%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%36.37%36.32%37.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.432.6043.48%40.84%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 38.70%2.58fair odd
EV -7.13%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -5.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.76%38.70%39.13%40.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.352.4046.51%43.35%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.600%
Kelly +0.793%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.14%24.93%24.55%26.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.504.1131.25%28.57%28.57%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 36.37%; Union Berlin (Visit): 38.70%; Draw: 24.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.72%EV -5.80%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.13%EV -8.29%E -3.50%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.14%EV +2.47%E +0.600%K +0.793%G +0.020%5.1%2026-10-04 13:05
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.23%EV -6.89%E -2.69%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.30%EV -8.68%E -3.68%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.47%EV -5.51%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 13:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -12.71%E -5.29%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.75%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-01 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -11.62%E -4.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-02 13:59
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.69%EV -12.71%E -5.29%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.84%EV -16.80%E -7.81%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.47%EV -12.74%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-02 14:00
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -9.07%E -3.63%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -12.93%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -15.23%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -9.07%E -3.63%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -12.93%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -15.23%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -9.07%E -3.63%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -12.93%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -15.23%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 13:55
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -5.43%E -2.09%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -12.93%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -17.73%E -5.37%K -7.71%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-04 07:34
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.18%EV -16.34%E -7.11%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.82%EV -14.87%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.00%EV -20.22%E -6.32%K -9.19%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-04 13:04
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.18%EV -16.34%E -7.11%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.82%EV -14.87%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.00%EV -20.22%E -6.32%K -9.19%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-04 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 36.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%6.7%2026-10-04 13:55