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VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-11-16 17:00 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 17.89%5.59fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.19%17.89%17.79%19.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.564.854.755.2021.93%20.62%21.05%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 61.35%1.63fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -8.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.52%61.35%61.96%62.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.501.5570.42%66.92%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.86%20.76%20.25%22.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.184.004.5625.00%23.92%25.00%21.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 17.89%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 61.35%; Draw: 20.76%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.55, with an expected value of -4.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.19%EV -7.00%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.95%EV -12.88%E -9.07%K -30.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.86%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-12 08:54
Pinnacle🎯5.19I 19.27%NM 17.79%EV -7.18%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.96%EV -8.59%E -5.76%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.25%EV -5.32%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-12 11:40
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.05%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-12 09:30
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.05%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-12 09:29
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.05%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-12 09:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.05%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-12 09:30
1xBet🎯4.56I 21.93%NM 19.89%EV -18.44%E -4.04%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.52%EV -4.90%E -3.16%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.59%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-12 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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