The School of Odds
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Union Berlin v Werder Bremen

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 37.65%2.66fair odd
EV -7.75%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%37.65%37.57%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.302.4546.51%43.09%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.09%37.45%37.25%39.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.452.5843.48%41.27%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.79%24.90%25.18%26.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.503.8030.30%28.59%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Berlin (Local): 37.65%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 37.45%; Draw: 24.90%. For Werder Bremen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.58, with an expected value of -3.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -7.75%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-23 16:38
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.91%EV -9.63%E -4.01%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -3.39%E -1.31%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 16:50
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -10.39%E -4.36%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-23 16:39
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -10.39%E -4.36%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-23 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -10.39%E -4.36%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-23 16:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -10.39%E -4.36%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-23 16:39
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.24%EV -11.51%E -4.90%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.09%EV -6.76%E -2.71%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-23 16:50
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:39
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-23 16:39
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.68%EV -17.16%E -7.80%K -14.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.00%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%17.5%2026-03-23 16:49
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.67%EV -19.05%E -8.86%K -16.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.83%E -5.40%K -7.75%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-23 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.