The School of Odds
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Union Berlin v TSG Hoffenheim

2026-11-08 13:00 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 50.69%1.97fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.39%50.69%50.98%52.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.841.851.9058.14%54.24%53.91%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 24.76%4.04fair odd
EV -8.14%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%24.76%24.87%28.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.253.7132.26%30.10%30.77%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.55%4.07fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.55%24.15%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.533.503.8229.41%28.29%28.57%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Berlin (Local): 50.69%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 24.76%; Draw: 24.55%. For Union Berlin (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.90, with an expected value of -3.70%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.39%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 13:05
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.39%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.39%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 13:04
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.52%EV -4.20%E -2.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-05 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.52%EV -4.20%E -2.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-05 13:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.52%EV -4.20%E -2.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-05 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.52%EV -4.20%E -2.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -23.25%E -7.50%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -14.06%E -4.02%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-05 13:04
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -7.75%E -4.26%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -15.82%E -4.65%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 23.97%EV -7.67%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-05 08:55
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.98%EV -8.26%E -4.56%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 24.87%EV -8.14%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.15%EV -6.20%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-05 08:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -8.76%E -4.87%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -16.51%E -4.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 09:24
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -8.76%E -4.87%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -16.51%E -4.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 09:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -8.76%E -4.87%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -16.51%E -4.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 09:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -8.76%E -4.87%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -16.51%E -4.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.15%EV -12.82%E -7.45%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.69%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-05 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.