Language:English
Union Berlin v TSG Hoffenheim
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Berlin (Local)
Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%28.33%28.56%30.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.173.253.3035.71%31.52%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)
Prediction 47.07%2.12fair odd
EV -6.81%
Edge -3.44%
Kelly -6.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.62%47.32%47.07%49.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.871.831.9854.95%53.57%54.64%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.37%4.10fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%24.35%24.37%25.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.753.9029.41%27.13%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Berlin (Local): 28.56%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 47.07%; Draw: 24.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -4.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -4.95%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.34%EV -6.60%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.13%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 27.84%EV -6.88%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.53%EV -11.99%E -6.41%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 23.63%EV -6.42%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.89%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-10 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.58%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-08 15:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.58%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-08 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.58%EV -6.81%E -3.44%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 03:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.45%E -3.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -14.70%E -4.20%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-10 02:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.45%E -3.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -14.70%E -4.20%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-10 02:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.45%E -3.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -14.70%E -4.20%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-10 02:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.45%E -3.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -14.70%E -4.20%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-10 02:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -20.02%E -7.15%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%EV -20.02%E -7.15%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.62%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.56%EV -17.14%E -5.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-05-09 22:13 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.