The School of Odds
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Union Berlin v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Final: Union Berlin 3–2 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.95%45.52%45.52%47.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.891.852.0754.05%52.89%54.05%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd
EV +3.30%
Edge +0.970%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.06%30.38%30.38%30.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.223.403.4036.36%31.05%29.41%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.10%4.15fair odd
EV -8.43%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%24.10%24.10%26.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.403.8030.77%29.00%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Berlin (Local): 45.52%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 30.38%; Draw: 24.10%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV +3.30%E +0.970%K +1.37%G +0.045%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -18.06%E -5.31%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 16:05
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.96%EV -10.78%E -5.50%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.60%EV -4.30%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.45%EV -14.69%E -4.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 16:09
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.81%EV -5.77%E -2.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.71%EV -8.25%E -2.73%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.47%EV -8.67%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 16:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -11.24%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 16:04
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.95%EV -13.51%E -7.11%K -15.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.36%EV -16.45%E -5.98%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.69%EV -21.68%E -6.67%K -9.64%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-20 16:15
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.95%EV -13.51%E -7.11%K -15.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.36%EV -16.45%E -5.98%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.69%EV -21.68%E -6.67%K -9.64%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-20 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.